Live Cattle On Tuesday July 10, 2018 the August Live Cattle contract broke down and approached the 104.85 support level, making the low at 105.10. It settled nearby at 105.45. If cattle can recover from settlement a test of the 106.025 resistance level is possible. Resistance then comes in at 107.35. A breakdown below the low could see support tested …
AG TIME
Today my commentary is more general in nature. I will wait to see the USDA report on thursday. It is my belief there are some things that are out of whack. First the 2017/18 bean carry should remain above 500 million. The 2018 is working in that direction. It seems unlikely that the demand for export can stay at 2,290 …
Livestock Report
Live Cattle On Monday July 9, 2018 the August Live Cattle contract opened at 106.85 and traded to the high at 107.325. This is right at the key level at 107.35. It broke down from here trading to the low at 105.775. This is below the 106.025 support level, but it held and settled above it at 106.125. A bounce …
Grain Spreads: There’s Still Time
The month of June was no friend to the corn and bean producer regarding price. Sure it afforded those who didn’t get the crop in during May ample time to finish planting. Weather though was so optimal for planting then early development that it erased any buying or weather premium being built in the market. Then came the tariffs which was …
AG TIME – Macro changes
The soy under pressure led by meal. This may be the beginning of something. The meal has been the strongest part of the soy. This has driven oil share down to 30% and the crush margins near record price. The global landscape will shift from a tight meal market ( although I question this was ever the case), to a …
Livestock Report
Live Cattle On Thursday July 5, 2018 the August Live Cattle contract consolidated in a quiet trading session. It traded in a range from 107.575 high to the low at 106.30, settling near the low at 106.375. A breakdown below the 106.025 support level could lead to a test of support at 104.85. A bounce off the Thursday low could …
AG TIME – Who will blink?
The beans were under pressure yet again. The concern over the tariff situation continues. There are only 12 short hours till the implementation. Will someone blink. The psychology of this is the meaningful aspect. If the tariffs are put in place it will still be 2-3 months before they are finalized. It is still my belief that the actual implementation …
AG TIME – Do stocks to usage count any more?
The bean market down yet again. The weather remains fairly beneficial. The title here today is what I am attempting to figure out. It is my belief that the markets can act irrational for a period of time. It is also my belief that the markets ultimately are driven by the supply and demand. The stocks to usage ratio is …
Livestock Report
Live Cattle On Monday July 2, 2018 the August Live Cattle contract made another new high for the up move trading up to 108.45, just shy of resistance at 108.65. It didn’t remain up here for long as cattle pulled back and settled at 106.90. A failure from settlement could see price test support at 106.025 and the 104.85. A …
Grain Spreads: Search for Low
Corn and beans once again found no friends as overnight rallies along with intra-day rallies found aggressive selling. Managed funds have been active sellers the last few weeks and look to be short 44 K contracts of beans while short 60 K contracts of corn as of June 26th according to data from the CFTC. For corn, managed funds have …