The September WASDE report showed an 0.2 mb increase in harvested acres, while crush was raised 15 mb and exports were unsurprisingly reduced by 20 mb. Ending stocks are now 300 mb, compared to 290 mb last month. Old crop ending stocks are steady at 330 mb. President Trump’s comments on China, Friday, sent soybeans lower. China may not be buying US soybeans anytime soon. China’s soybean imports are up 5.3% on the year. Harvest is estimated at 70-80% complete, with some discussion of dryness hurting yields. The soybean crop is likely getting smaller from here, not bigger. Soybean oil has traded lower due to a lack of clarity from the EPA on refinery waiver exemptions, in addition to the ongoing trade tensions with China. Soybean meal has trendline resistance at 267.6. If that level breaks, soybean meal has room to go lower. Demand has been strong, but supply is still burdensome.
Price Outlook
The 3-month high is 1062 3/4 in November soybeans, while the low is 981 1/4. Soybeans have support at 999 and 1005. Resistance is at 1016, 1022, and 1036 The gap in December soybean oil at 50.65 has filled. Soybean oil is trading below the 14-day on the daily, and weekly charts and above the 14-day on the monthly chart. The next resistance for soybean oil is 50.55, and 50.76. The next support is 50, 48.45 and 48.30. Soybean oil made a 6-month low at 45.74 in late March. The 6-month high for soybean oil is 57.2. Zooming out on the weekly chart, soybean oil looks very bullish. December soybean meal has resistance at 274.3, 276.1, and 282.9. Support is at 274 and 273. 5.. Soybean meal has traded a larger range the past 3 months, making a high at 300.1 in early August and a low at 270.1 at the beginning of October.
CORN
CORN
’23/’24 Est USDA
’24/’25 Est
’25/’26 Proj September
Million Acres
Area Planted
94.6
90.6
98.7
Area Harvested
86.5
82.9
90.0
Bushels
Yield Per Harvested Acre
177.3
179.3
186.7
Million Bushels
Beginning Stocks
1,360
1,763
1,325
Production
15,341
14,867
16,814
Imports
28
20
25
Supply, Total
16,729
16,650
18,165
Feed and Residual
5,832
5,675
6,100
Food, Seed & Industrial
6,879
6,820
6,980
Ethanol & By-products
5,489
5,435
5,600
Domestic, Total
12,711
12,495
13,080
Exports
2,255
2,820
2,975
Use, Total
14,966
15,325
16,055
Ending Stocks
1,763
1,325
2,110
Stocks-Use Ratio
11.78%
8.65%
13.14%
Avg. Farm Price ($/bu)
4.55
4.30
3.90
WORLD CORN
’23/’24
’24/’25 Est
’25/’26 Proj USDA
Million Metric Tons
Beginning Stocks
305.41
315.53
284.18
Production
1,231.06
1,228.91
1,286.58
Imports
197.44
182.96
193.20
Supply, Total
1,733.91
1,727.40
1,763.96
Feed, Domestic
769.64
786.68
810.51
Total Domestic
1,220.93
1,260.26
1,289.36
Exports
192.57
193.80
201.71
Use, Total
2,183.14
2,240.74
2,301.58
Ending Stocks
315.53
284.18
281.40
Stocks-Use Ratio
14.45%
12.68%
12.23%
( Based on 14 Day High/Low )
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
CORN
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CORN CHARTS
Daily
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Weekly
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Monthly
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Corn Commentary
Corn traded lower with soybeans and wheat after President Trump’s comments on China last Friday. December corn is trading closer to the 400 level which hasn’t happened since late August. It’s possible for corn to slip below 400, but if it happens corn will likely see strong buying and not stay there long. Once the government reopens, WASDE reports will resume. The USDA will likely estimate the corn crop smaller from here.
Price Outlook
Corn is trading above the 14-day on all timeframes. Be aware of possible harvest pressure. December corn made a bottom at 392 on August 12. December corn has resistance at 427, 435 and 440. Support is at 400, 403, and 392.
WHEAT
WHEAT
’23/’24 Est USDA
’24/’25 Est
’25/’26 Proj
Million Acres
Area Planted
49.6
46.1
45.4
Area Harvested
37.1
38.5
36.6
Bushels
Yield Per Harvested Acre
48.7
51.2
52.7
Million Bushels
Beginning Stocks
570
696
851
Production
1,804
1,971
1,927
Imports
138
149
120
Supply, Total
2,511
2,817
2,898
Food
961
969
972
Seed
62
62
62
Feed and Residual
86
109
120
Domestic, Total
1,109
1,140
1,154
Exports
706
826
900
Use, Total
1,815
1,966
2,054
Ending Stocks
696
851
844
Stocks-Use Ratio
38.35%
43.29%
41.09%
Avg. Farm Price ($/bu)
6.96
5.52
5.10
WORLD WHEAT
’23/’24 Est USDA
’24/’25 Est
’25/’26 Proj USDA
Million Metric Tons
Beginning Stocks
274.65
270.70
262.42
Production
792.34
800.86
816.20
Imports
223.24
199.43
210.56
Supply, Total
1,290.23
1,270.99
1,289.18
Feed, Domestic
158.46
155.88
158.13
Total Domestic
796.29
809.14
814.56
Exports
222.24
209.57
214.72
Use, Total
1,176.99
1,174.59
1,187.41
Ending Stocks
270.70
262.42
264.06
Stocks-Use Ratio
23.00%
22.34%
22.24%
( Based on 14 Day High/Low )
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
WHEAT
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WHEAT CHARTS
Daily
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Weekly
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Monthly
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Wheat Commentary
Wheat ending stocks are high domestically and there’s plenty of large crops around the world. Global consumption is offsetting some of the higher supply, but demand hasn’t been strong enough to see a trend reversal. The main bullish factor for wheat is the escalating war in Ukraine. However, lately the war has offered little support. Looking at the seasonals this time of year is usually bullish for wheat. Wheat broke the physiological support level at 500. More downside is likely ahead for wheat.
Price Outlook
Wheat is trading below the 14-day moving average on the daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. December wheat has broken 500 with higher open interest. Support is now at 495, 477, and 460. Resistance is at 500, 524, and 530 ½.
COTTON
COTTON
’23/’24
’24/’25 Est
’24/’25 Proj September
Area
Million Acres
Planted
10.23
11.18
9.30
Harvested
6.44
7.81
7.37
Pounds
Yield Per Harvested Acre
899
886
861
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks
4.65
3.15
4.00
Production
12.07
14.41
13.22
Imports
0
0
0.01
Supply, Total
16.72
17.57
17.23
Domestic Use
1.85
1.70
1.70
Exports, Total
11.75
11.90
12
Use, Total
13.60
13.60
13.70
Unaccounted
-0.03
-0.03
-0.07
Ending Stocks
3.15
4.00
3.60
Stocks-Use Ratio
23.16%
29.41%
26.28%
Avg. Farm Price (c/lb.)
76.1
63.0
64.0
WORLD COTTON
’23/’24
’24/’25 Est
’25/’26 Proj USDA
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks
75.83
73.34
74.06
Production
112.56
119.22
117.68
Imports
44.05
43.14
43.71
Supply, Total
232.44
235.70
235.45
Use, Domestic
114.95
119.15
118.83
Exports
44.36
42.71
43.70
Loss
-0.21
-0.22
-0.23
Use, Total
159.10
161.64
162.30
Ending Stocks
73.34
74.06
73.14
Stocks-Use Ratio
46.10%
45.82%
45.06%
( Based on 14 Day High/Low )
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
COTTON
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COTTON CHARTS
Daily
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Weekly
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Monthly
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Cotton Commentary
Trade tensions put negative pressure on cotton, similar to the grains. The chart no longer looks as bullish as it did a few weeks back. Cotton is now trading well off its 21-day and 50-day moving averages.
Price Outlook
Cotton is trading below the 14-day moving average on the daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. Cotton was trading in the range of 65-70 but has since broken resistance at 65. Support for cotton is now at 62.35, 60, and 59. If these levels cannot hold cotton could be in trouble. Escalating trade tensions with China and no updates on a possible deal with India continue to hurt cotton.
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