The September WASDE report showed an 0.2 mb increase in harvested acres, while crush was raised 15 mb and exports were unsurprisingly reduced by 20 mb. Ending stocks are now 300 mb, compared to 290 mb last month. Old crop ending stocks are steady at 330 mb. Friday’s COT showed managed money has a -29,302 contract net short position in soybeans, after selling -31,589 contracts. A weaker dollar should help exports going forward. China has been buying soybeans from South America. The 4th round of trade discussions between the US and China focused more on TikTok than Ag purchases. Upside may be limited until a trade deal with China is completed. Soybean oil has traded lower due to a lack of clarity from the EPA on refinery waiver exemptions. Stocks are getting tight while demand is growing domestically. Managed money has a very small <1000 contract position in soybean oil, after selling -22,286 contracts for the week ending September 23. There is an abundance of soybean meal in the world. The US is competing with South America for export sales. Trade talks with India are heating up and a deal with China should happen at some point. I’d rather be long soybean oil than soybean meal. Friday’s COT showed that funds bought 3,013 contracts to bring their net short position in soybean meal to -82,772 contracts.
Price Outlook
The 3-month high is 1074 1/4 in November soybeans, while the low is 981 1/4. Soybeans have support at 999 and 1005. Resistance is at 1016, 1022, and 1036 The gap in December soybean oil at 50.65 has filled. Soybean oil is trading below the 14-day on the daily, and weekly charts and above the 14-day on the monthly chart. The next resistance for soybean oil is 50.55, 50.00, and 49.83. The next support is 48.45 and 48.30. Soybean oil made a 6-month low at 41.5 in late March. The 6-month high for soybean oil is 57.2. December soybean meal has resistance at 282.9, 289.2, 290.2 Support is at 273.5 and 275.7. Soybean meal has traded a larger range the past 3 months, making a high at 300.1 in early August and a low at 272.6 in late July.
CORN
CORN
’23/’24 Est USDA
’24/’25 Est
’25/’26 Proj September
Million Acres
Area Planted
94.6
90.6
98.7
Area Harvested
86.5
82.9
90.0
Bushels
Yield Per Harvested Acre
177.3
179.3
186.7
Million Bushels
Beginning Stocks
1,360
1,763
1,325
Production
15,341
14,867
16,814
Imports
28
20
25
Supply, Total
16,729
16,650
18,165
Feed and Residual
5,832
5,675
6,100
Food, Seed & Industrial
6,879
6,820
6,980
Ethanol & By-products
5,489
5,435
5,600
Domestic, Total
12,711
12,495
13,080
Exports
2,255
2,820
2,975
Use, Total
14,966
15,325
16,055
Ending Stocks
1,763
1,325
2,110
Stocks-Use Ratio
11.78%
8.65%
13.14%
Avg. Farm Price ($/bu)
4.55
4.30
3.90
WORLD CORN
’23/’24
’24/’25 Est
’25/’26 Proj USDA
Million Metric Tons
Beginning Stocks
305.41
315.53
284.18
Production
1,231.06
1,228.91
1,286.58
Imports
197.44
182.96
193.20
Supply, Total
1,733.91
1,727.40
1,763.96
Feed, Domestic
769.64
786.68
810.51
Total Domestic
1,220.93
1,260.26
1,289.36
Exports
192.57
193.80
201.71
Use, Total
2,183.14
2,240.74
2,301.58
Ending Stocks
315.53
284.18
281.40
Stocks-Use Ratio
14.45%
12.68%
12.23%
( Based on 14 Day High/Low )
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
CORN
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CORN CHARTS
Daily
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Weekly
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Monthly
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Corn Commentary
In August the USDA estimated yield at 188.8 bpa. For September, yield was estimated at 186.7 bpa, however this came with an increase in area planted by 1.4 ma and an increase in the area harvested by 1.3 ma. Old crop carryout is estimated at 1,325 mb, compared to 1,305 mb last month. Corn did have a strong reaction following the report, making a high at 430 1/4 and closing at 428. Ahead of the report, corn also broke the trendline resistance from the April high to 417. December corn has strong support above 400 and has likely put in a bottom at 392. Trade deals could be ahead as trade discussions resume with China and India. Friday’s COT report showed funds short covering. Managed money traders net short position in corn is -94,675 contracts. Ending stocks are estimated at 2,110 mb compared to 2,117 mb last month. The Grain Stocks report will be released on Tuesday.
Price Outlook
Corn is trading above the 14-day on the weekly but below on the daily and monthly chart. Be aware of possible harvest pressure, however I don’t think we see $3 corn again this year. Corn is trading above the 14-day moving average on the daily and below the 14-day on the weekly and monthly charts. December corn likely made a bottom at 392 on August 12. December corn has resistance at 435 and 440. Support is at 418, 411, and 400.
WHEAT
WHEAT
’23/’24 Est USDA
’24/’25 Est
’25/’26 Proj
Million Acres
Area Planted
49.6
46.1
45.4
Area Harvested
37.1
38.5
36.6
Bushels
Yield Per Harvested Acre
48.7
51.2
52.7
Million Bushels
Beginning Stocks
570
696
851
Production
1,804
1,971
1,927
Imports
138
149
120
Supply, Total
2,511
2,817
2,898
Food
961
969
972
Seed
62
62
62
Feed and Residual
86
109
120
Domestic, Total
1,109
1,140
1,154
Exports
706
826
900
Use, Total
1,815
1,966
2,054
Ending Stocks
696
851
844
Stocks-Use Ratio
38.35%
43.29%
41.09%
Avg. Farm Price ($/bu)
6.96
5.52
5.10
WORLD WHEAT
’23/’24 Est USDA
’24/’25 Est
’25/’26 Proj USDA
Million Metric Tons
Beginning Stocks
274.65
270.70
262.42
Production
792.34
800.86
816.20
Imports
223.24
199.43
210.56
Supply, Total
1,290.23
1,270.99
1,289.18
Feed, Domestic
158.46
155.88
158.13
Total Domestic
796.29
809.14
814.56
Exports
222.24
209.57
214.72
Use, Total
1,176.99
1,174.59
1,187.41
Ending Stocks
270.70
262.42
264.06
Stocks-Use Ratio
23.00%
22.34%
22.24%
( Based on 14 Day High/Low )
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
WHEAT
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WHEAT CHARTS
Daily
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Weekly
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Monthly
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Wheat Commentary
The only real changes for domestic wheat on this report were an increase in new crop exports from 875 mb in August to 900 mb. Ending stocks for new crop wheat are now reduced to 844 mb, from 869 mb previously. For world wheat, ending stocks were increased to 264.06 mb. In August, world wheat ending stocks were 260.08 bb. The higher ending stock number is due to higher production around the world, which is not new information based on recent wheat crop estimates. Global consumption is offsetting some of the higher supply. The main bullish factor for wheat is the ongoing war in the Black Sea and the potential for short covering. Looking at the seasonals this time of year is usually bullish for wheat. At some point wheat should reach peak supply fear and find a bottom but it may still be too early yet. Rate cuts should help exports improve, but the US has plenty of export competition. The COT showed more selling from funds in wheat, with -12,110 new short positions being added. Managed money is now short -97,935 wheat contracts. Sentiment for wheat is still bearish, but a bounce could happen if the Grain Stocks report is friendly or weather problems start to become a bigger concern.
Price Outlook
Wheat is trading below the 14-day moving average on the daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. December wheat has held 500. Support is now at 515, 512, and 505. Resistance is at 524, 530 1/2, and 535.
COTTON
COTTON
’23/’24
’24/’25 Est
’24/’25 Proj September
Area
Million Acres
Planted
10.23
11.18
9.30
Harvested
6.44
7.81
7.37
Pounds
Yield Per Harvested Acre
899
886
861
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks
4.65
3.15
4.00
Production
12.07
14.41
13.22
Imports
0
0
0.01
Supply, Total
16.72
17.57
17.23
Domestic Use
1.85
1.70
1.70
Exports, Total
11.75
11.90
12
Use, Total
13.60
13.60
13.70
Unaccounted
-0.03
-0.03
-0.07
Ending Stocks
3.15
4.00
3.60
Stocks-Use Ratio
23.16%
29.41%
26.28%
Avg. Farm Price (c/lb.)
76.1
63.0
64.0
WORLD COTTON
’23/’24
’24/’25 Est
’25/’26 Proj USDA
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks
75.83
73.34
74.06
Production
112.56
119.22
117.68
Imports
44.05
43.14
43.71
Supply, Total
232.44
235.70
235.45
Use, Domestic
114.95
119.15
118.83
Exports
44.36
42.71
43.70
Loss
-0.21
-0.22
-0.23
Use, Total
159.10
161.64
162.30
Ending Stocks
73.34
74.06
73.14
Stocks-Use Ratio
46.10%
45.82%
45.06%
( Based on 14 Day High/Low )
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
COTTON
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COTTON CHARTS
Daily
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Weekly
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Monthly
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Cotton Commentary
Less cotton was planted this year in favor of soybeans and corn. The USDA lowered yield for cotton to 861 pounds per acre in September. Area planted and area harvested estimates were raised very slightly from August. No changes were made to consumption, exports, or ending stocks; the stocks-to-use ratio remains unchanged at just over 26%. Prices could fall into mid-October with harvest pressure. Demand is really hurting cotton. Stronger exports could help the price go up, more rate cuts would be bullish. Friday’s COT showed the funds sold a small amount of cotton, bringing their net short position to -62,004 contracts. Two weeks ago, managed money bought 9,884 contracts.
Price Outlook
Cotton is trading below the 14-day moving average on the daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. Cotton has been stuck in a range between 65-70 for some time now. When cotton does break this range, it will likely be a significant move. December cotton bounced at 66.70, and it now has resistance at 68. The chart is getting tighter, a move to 70 could be on the way.
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