Soybeans–
Soybeans saw some re-positioning heading into the end of the quarter and the end of the month, causing a higher close heading into the weekend.
The Grain Stocks Report comes out Monday, along with the Acreage Report. The average estimate for the soybean stocks is 980 million bushels, with a range of 805 mb to 852 mb. Last year on this report, the USDA came in at 970 mb. For the acreage, the average analyst estimate is 83.655 million acres, with analyst estimates between 82.5 on the low-end and 85.3 on the high-end. On the March Acreage Report, the USDA gave an estimate of 83.495 million acres. Comparing these numbers to last year, analysts are expecting acreage to come in lower than last year’s figure at 87.050 million acres, even if the estimate is above the analyst average.
The period from late June through early October has been a dangerous stretch over the last 15 years. Over this timeframe soybeans saw losses in 11 out of 14 years, with an average return of -4.87%. It’s one of the weakest seasonal windows in the entire commodity complexes.
July Soybeans (ZSN25) settled at 1027 (+5), high of 1034, low of 1020. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1024 (+8). Cash price is at 997 (-2)
July Bean Meal (ZMN25) settled at 271.1 (+0.2) high of 272.2, low of 269.4
July Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 52.45 (-0.07) high of 52.90, low of 52.12
The July Meal to Oil ratio (52.12% Meal – 47.88% Oil)
ZSN25 Moving Averages – (1036) 5-day, (1050) 20-day, (1052) 50-day, (1047) 100-day, (1047) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1028) 5-day, (1036) 20-day, (1036) 50-day, (1032) 100-day, (1033) 200-day
ZMN25 Moving Averages – (280.5) 5-day, (292.2) 20-day, (296.3) 50-day, (302.7) 100-day, (310.6) 200-day
ZLN25 Moving Averages – (52.44) 5-day, (50.18) 20-day, (49.60) 50-day, (47.44) 100-day, (45.57) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 17th showed soybeans Managed Money traders bought 33,526 contracts to their bringing their net long total to 59,165 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -17,367 contracts bringing their net short position to -160,854 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was 43,994 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 17th showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,273 contracts, moving to a net short position of -107,081 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 19,470 contracts bringing their net short position to -42,635. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of – 78,428 contracts.
For bean oil, the Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 17h showed Managed Money traders were net long 46,143 contracts after buying 21,375 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 70,535 contracts.
CORN –
July Corn (ZCN25) settled at 417 (+8), high of 419, low of 409. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 427 (+6). Cash price is 432 (-0.75)
Corn saw some short covering today, with traders deciding to take some risk off the table ahead of what may be the most volatile trading day of the year on Monday.
The average estimate for corn stocks on Monday is 4,641 million bushels. Analyst estimates fall between 4,473 and 4,798 mb. Last year, the USDA estimated 4,997 mb on the June report. The average estimate for acreage is 95.350 million acres, with analysts estimating between 93.750 and 96.8 million acres. The USDA estimated 95.326 million acres in March and 90.594 ma last year. 7 of the last 10 years have showed an increase in corn acres above the average guess on the June acreage reports.
Ethanol demand is strong. Average daily production for the week ending June 20th, was 1.081 mb, making a new high for this week of the year. Ethanol stocks were 24.0404 mb, also making a new high for this week of the year.
ZCN25 Moving Averages – (414) 5-day, (431) 20-day, (450) 50-day, (467) 100-day, (461) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (426) 5-day, (437) 20-day, (443) 50-day, (450) 100-day, (448) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 17th showed that corn Managed Money sold -20,768 contracts bringing their net position to -184,788 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 15,051 contracts bringing their net position to -63,293 Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -187,071 contracts.
WHEAT –
July Chicago Wheat (ZWN25) settled at 524 (+3), with a high of 529, low of 520. September Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 540 (+4). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 514 (-7). July KC Wheat (KEN25) settled at 516 (-2). July Spring Wheat (MWN25) settled at 608 (+1)
The wheat market also closed higher today, after several days in a daytime sessions in a row with lower closes. The wheat market also saw short covering heading into Monday’s report day.
The average estimate for wheat is stocks is 836 million bushels. Analysts are estimating between 805 and 852 mb. Last June, the USDA estimated wheat stocks at 696 mb. All wheat acreage is estimated at 45.438 million acres, with analysts looking for between 45 and 45 ma. In March, acreage was estimated at 45.350 and 46.079 ma last year.
Wheat export sales for the week ending June 19th, came in at 255k mt for the current marketing year. Cumulative sales are at 29.4% of the USDA forecast for the 2025/26 marketing year.
ZWN25 Moving Averages – (532) 5-day, (541) 20-day, (538) 50-day, (557) 100-day, (574) 200-day
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (548) 5-day, (556) 20-day, (553) 50-day, (572) 100-day, (587) 200-day
KEN25 Moving Averages – (528) 5-day, (537) 20-day, (536) 50-day, (566) 100-day, (579) 200-day
MWN25 Moving Averages – (615) 5-day, (624) 20-day, (609) 50-day, (616) 100-day, (625) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 17th showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -81,353 contracts, having decreased their short position by 12,658 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -7,525 contracts to bring their net long position to 26,570 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -89,832 contracts.
Hans Schmit
Account Executive Walsh Trading
Direct 312-765-7311
Toll Free 800-993-5449
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hschmit@walshtrading.com
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