It probably does not need to be pointed out that Wheat has been the most effected commodity by the war in Ukraine. With that said, there will continue to be wide swings in the Wheat market with every bit of information I receive. With it being almost certain that I would not see a wheat crop planted this coming year in Ukraine as one of the bullish fundamental factors in the market, I look to see what else is driving itThere was an overnight agreement between Russia and the Ukraine on a single evacuation route out of the country. The World Bank had loans coming to the Ukraine overnight. As I saw in Corn there is also the potential of more Wheat exports out of Brazil at these inflated prices. China also seems to have one foot in and one foot out of the door in regards to where they stand on Russia by the censoring of the news being released within Chinese borders. Other fundamental factors I see are the potential for this to be the worst Chinese Winter Wheat crop in history and the Black Sea Issues. As long as I see Russia’s aggressive actions in Ukraine, daily fluctuations in the market will be wide based on even the smallest news stories that develop. I still can’t ignore the other bullish and bearish factors in the market. I look for Wheat to have an overall bullish trend but I will also see days like today will large corrections in the Wheat market.
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