Soybeans–
Soybeans traded lower on fears of the USDA lowering new crop exports. Reportedly China has already made purchases for 94% of their October needs and 15% of their needs for November. China has been making the majority of their purchases recently from Brazil. Trump was granted a fast-track on his ruling for his recent tariffs, with arguments starting on November 1. The Supreme Court is still expected to tie up export decisions limiting the window for sales. Eastern soybean areas are expected to stay dry, while there’s chances for rain in the Plains.
November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1025 (-6), high of 1032, low of 1024. January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1044 (-5), high of 1051, low of 1042. Cash price is at 990 (-2)
October Bean Meal (ZMV25) settled at 283.5 (-4.2) high of 287.7, low of 282.9
October Bean Oil (ZLV25) settled at 50.47 (+0.54) high of 50.51, low of 49.44
The September Meal to Oil ratio (52.51% Meal – 47.49% Oil)
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1030) 5-day, (1040) 20-day, (1024) 50-day, (1030) 100-day, (1026) 200-day
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1049) 5-day, (1059) 20-day, (1042) 50-day, (1045) 100-day, (1039) 200-day
ZMV25 Moving Averages – (282.7) 5-day, (285.4) 20-day, (280.8) 50-day, (290.1) 100-day, (301.1) 200-day
ZLV25 Moving Averages – (50.74) 5-day, (52.21) 20-day, (53.56) 50-day, (51.67) 100-day, (47.79) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed soybean Managed Money traders bought 35,273 contracts bringing their bringing their net long position to 3 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -28,135 contracts bringing their net short position to -114,151 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -4,791 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed meal Managed Money traders bought 24,070 contracts, bringing their net short position of -85,239 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -11,089 contracts bringing their net short position to -60,857. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -40,571 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 31,342 contracts after selling -13,070 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 50,491 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 417 (-2), high of 420, low of 416. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 434 (-3). Cash price is 417 (-2)
The WASDE report on Friday should help corn pick a direction. Volatility has dried up and corn is stuck at 417, which is the resistance area that aligns with the trendline from the April high. There has been some concern of lower feed demand, due to the low cattle supply. Overall, the report on Friday is expected to be bullish. However, 4 of the last 6 years the USDA lowered their yield estimate from August to September. In my article, on Barchart.com I included a trade that profits from a large move in either direction. Corn has had a tighter trade range lately this trade aims to profit from a break of that trend.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (419) 5-day, (411) 20-day, (414) 50-day, (428) 100-day, (440) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (437) 5-day, (429) 20-day, (431) 50-day, (444) 100-day, (454) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed that corn Managed Money bought 31,464 contracts bringing their net position to -144,650 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -25,041 contracts bringing their net position to -57,745. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -163,744 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 515 (-5), with a high of 522, low of 514. March 26’ Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 532 (-5). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 464 (-3). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 507 (-3).
Wheat moved 5 cents lower today, after trading 1 1/4 cents higher in the overnight. I’m still bearish on wheat due to the large crops expected around the world. The USDA report on Friday is expected to fall in line with estimates. Russian drones were reported to have struck targets in Poland, however the wheat market did not flinch. LSEG raised their production estimate for Ukraine’s crop to by 3.3% above last month. LSEG held Canada’s wheat production estimate steady. Wheat has had a slightly tighter trading range recently, but the trend is clearly bearish.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (519) 5-day, (525) 20-day, (543) 50-day, (559) 100-day, (582) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (536) 5-day, (543) 20-day, (561) 50-day, (577) 100-day, (600) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -98,132 contracts, having increased their short position by -8,837 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 2,615 contracts to bring their net long position to 25,061 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -163,744 contracts.