Soybeans–
Soybeans traded slightly lower following the rally after Friday’s WASDE. According to IEM estimates, parts of the central Midwest including parts of Missouri and Illinois are at their driest levels on record for the past 30 days. Other forecasters have the central Midwest at the top 10 or top 5 driest level in the past 133 years. The eastern Midwest is also battling drought. Dryness will be something to watch going forward as weather has been largely favorable thus far. Friday’s report showed a small yield decrease to 53.5 bpa, while harvested acres were increased by 200k. The USDA also raised crush estimates by 15 mb and decreased exports by 20 mb. Friday’s COT showed managed money closed their net long in soybeans to a net short position again. Managed money traders reduced their net long position in soybean oil and reduced their net short position in soybean meal.
November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1042 (-3), high of 1051, low of 1039. January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1061 (-3), high of 1070, low of 1058. Cash price is at 1005 (+12)
October Bean Meal (ZMV25) settled at 285.2 (-2.4) high of 287.5, low of 283.9
October Bean Oil (ZLV25) settled at 51.76 (+0.09) high of 52.44, low of 51.35
The September Meal to Oil ratio (52.43% Meal – 47.57% Oil)
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1035) 5-day, (1040) 20-day, (1024) 50-day, (1030) 100-day, (1027) 200-day
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1055) 5-day, (1059) 20-day, (1042) 50-day, (1046) 100-day, (1040) 200-day
ZMV25 Moving Averages – (286.0) 5-day, (285.1) 20-day, (280.9) 50-day, (289.5) 100-day, (300.9) 200-day
ZLV25 Moving Averages – (50.98) 5-day, (52.02) 20-day, (53.39) 50-day, (51.78) 100-day, (47.92) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 9 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -26,678 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -14,714 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 13,546 contracts bringing their net short position to -103,071 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -20,588 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 9 showed meal Managed Money traders bought 3,737 contracts, bringing their net short position of -85,785 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -18,479 contracts bringing their net short position to -67,247. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -38,832 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 9 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 3,662 contracts after selling -12,465 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 106,318 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 423 (-6), high of 428, low of 422. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 441 (-6). Cash price is 427 (+10)
Corn traded 6 ¼ cents lower to start the week after Friday’s rally. Today’s trading likely saw some profit taking. Going forward the drought monitor will be something to watch as the central Midwest is now extremely dry. The eastern corn belt is also dry and expected to miss out on any rainfall in the near-term. Friday’s report unsurprisingly showed the USDA lowered their yield estimate, however the estimate for harvested acres was raised 1.3 ma. Old crop ending stocks were 20 mb higher than in August. Friday’s rally came with a 22k rise in open interest, which suggests more new long positions being initiated. Volume was also the highest since late June. The COT report showed more selling in corn, however managed money traders are still short less than 100k contracts.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (422) 5-day, (415) 20-day, (413) 50-day, (427) 100-day, (440) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (439) 5-day, (432) 20-day, (431) 50-day, (443) 100-day, (453) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 9 showed that corn Managed Money sold -8,442 contracts bringing their net position to -9,929 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 9,487 contracts bringing their net position to -92,370. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -123,947 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 525 (+1), with a high of 529, low of 520. March 26’ Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 542 (+1). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 462 (+2). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 514 (+0.75).
Wheat was the only grain higher to start the week. Friday’s report showed an increase in exports by 25 mb, however that was the only major change to the domestic balance sheet. The world balance sheet showed increases in production estimates for major wheat growing countries including Russia, Australia, the EU, Canada, and Ukraine. The global production estimate was increased by 10 mt. World ending stocks were increased 4 mt, which is higher than the trade estimate.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (521) 5-day, (524) 20-day, (540) 50-day, (556) 100-day, (581) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (538) 5-day, (542) 20-day, (558) 50-day, (575) 100-day, (598) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 9 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -92,394 contracts, having decreased their short position by 3,662 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 9,487 contracts to bring their net short position to -92,370 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -83,124 contracts.
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