Soybeans–
Soybeans traded lower to $10.10 on Tuesday. Soybean ratings are at 68% good/excellent, down 2 points from last week. South Dakota and Ohio saw the most improvement in soybean development, while Kansas and Missouri had the steepest declines. Soybean meal still has room to go lower with the funds at record short and the oil share on its way to 55%. Soybean meal open interest is at record highs. Soybean oil will likely keep heading higher as demand is still very strong. The 6–14 day forecast show rains for the upper Midwest and northern plains along with above-average temperatures. Earlier today, a favorable trade deal was reached with the Philippines. More trade deals could be on the way shortly.
August Soybeans (ZSQ25) settled at 1010 (-4), high of 1017, low of 1005. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1025 (-0.50), high of 1030, low of 1020. Cash price is at 1007 (-10)
August Bean Meal (ZMQ25) settled at 273.8 (+3.3) high of 274.7, low of 269.3
August Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 55.63 (-0.44) high of 56.07, low of 55.24
The August Meal to Oil ratio (49.61% Meal – 50.39% Oil)
ZSQ25 Moving Averages – (1017) 5-day, (1023) 20-day, (1042) 50-day, (1036) 100-day, (1039) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1026) 5-day, (1022) 20-day, (1034) 50-day, (1026) 100-day, (1029) 200-day
ZMQ25 Moving Averages – (271.1) 5-day, (273.1) 20-day, (287.4) 50-day, (295.7) 100-day, (305.4) 200-day
ZLQ25 Moving Averages – (55.71) 5-day, (54.05) 20-day, (51.51) 50-day, (48.72) 100-day, (46.49) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week July 15 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -26,062 contracts to their bringing their net short to -32,278 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 26,095 contracts bringing their net short position to -84,104 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -34,902 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 15 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -1,537 contracts, moving to a net short position of -133,016 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -2,863 contracts bringing their net short position to -30,872. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -85,425 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 15 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 43,221 contracts after buying 5,480 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 70,579 contracts.
CORN –
September Corn (ZCU25) settled at 399 (-4), high of 406, low of 398. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 418 (-4). Cash price is 430 (-4)
Corn crop ratings are at 74% good/excellent, at no change from the week prior. Illinois and Minnesota saw the largest increases in corn ratings, while Indiana saw the biggest decline. Indiana and Illinois have the highest percentages of corn rated poor/very poor at 11% and 8%. The northern Plains and upper Midwest will see rains if the 6-14 day forecast materializes as expected, however the southern plains are approaching drought conditions with hot/dry weather anticipated for the foreseeable future. We’re now in the key pollination time period of the year, with the eastern corn belt just starting to pollinate and the central and western corn belt pollinating now. AgRural increased their estimate for Brazil’s corn crop to 136.3 mt from 130.6. Harvest is 77% complete in Brazil. Corn needs some more bullish news to rise above $4.30-$4.40 in the December contract. $4.30 is a strong resistance level.
ZCU25 Moving Averages – (403) 5-day, (405) 20-day, (418) 50-day, (431) 100-day, (439) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (422) 5-day, (422) 20-day, (434) 50-day, (442) 100-day, (445) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 15 showed that corn Managed Money bought 29,106 contracts bringing their net position to -174,755 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -10,113 contracts bringing their net position to -40,294. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -190,130 contracts.
WHEAT –
September Chicago Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 549 (+7), with a high of 552, low of 536. December Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 569 (+6). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 514 (-4). September KC Wheat (KEU25) settled at 533 (+7).
Wheat had a strong close today, up 7 cents, despite the upcoming peace talks between Ukraine and Russia tomorrow in Turkey. The Russians have been difficult to negotiate with so any ceasefire agreements or concessions would come as a surprise. Winter wheat harvest ratings were up 10 points to 73%. The 5-year average is 72%. Washington and Illinois saw the biggest increases in winter wheat conditions. HRS conditions fell 2 points. IKAR decreased their Russian production estimate by 0.5 mt to 83.5 mt, with reports of poor yields in the southwestern region. SovEcon is estimating Russia’s July exports at 2.4 mt, last July Russia exported 3.8 mt.
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (542) 5-day, (545) 20-day, (550) 50-day, (560) 100-day, (581) 200-day
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (563) 5-day, (567) 20-day, (572) 50-day, (582) 100-day, (600) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 15 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -60,487 contracts, having increased their short position by -4,893 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 865 contracts to bring their net long position to 5,759 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -74,935 contracts.
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