Wheat was trading near its lows early in the morning under pressure of the potential for easing of the war. However soon after the resumption May Wheat was trading over 40 cents higher. A couple of factors can help us understand why. I am still seeing a very poor crop situation in China. Couple that with extreme dryness in the central and southern plains of the U.S.. March Wheat goes off the board today currently with no trade. For the first time so far we are seeing high level in person talks pertaining to the war. As far as planting goes in Ukraine government officials are urging farmers to plant his year, but is that realistic with the impending danger they might face. I saw last week that large speculators turned their positions positive after being net short coming into the week. I feel the Fed will also raise rates on Wednesday which would be the first time since 2018. Ukraine is definitely looking for a cease fire and for Russia to exit the country. The U.S. is still very cautious as far as what kind of aid they can offer without directly getting involved in the war. Wheat markets will continue to be very volatile in the coming days focused on what is going on globally
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