Wheat Leads the Grains Lower on Tuesday

Hans SchmitGrains

SOYBEANS–

It was a quiet day for beans today after a quiet session in the overnight. There was some profit taking on Friday, but May was able to close higher today. Friday’s COT showed funds adding to their long position. Funds are long 123k contracts after buying 95k contracts. Today’s export inspections came in at 1.2 mmt at 56.8% of the USDA forecast, compared to the 5-year average at 72%. Exports need to be 651k a week to hit the USDA estimate. Cumulative exports for the 2025/26 marketing year are at a 7-year low at 894.77 mb, -32.4% YoY

May ’26 Soybeans (ZSK26) settled at 1148 (+0.25), high of 1153, low of 1141. November Soybeans (ZSX26) settled at 1117 (+4), high of 1118, low of 1108. Cash price is at 1107 (-4)

May Bean Meal (ZMK26) settled at 310.8 (-2.7) high of 312.7, low of 309.3

May Bean Oil (ZLK26)) settled at 57.76 (+0.29) high of 58.09, low of 57.14

Meal to Oil ratio (51.625% Meal – 48.375% Oil)

ZSK26 Moving Averages – (1130) 5-day, (1089) 20-day, (1078) 50-day, (1087) 100-day, (1073) 200-day

ZSX26 Moving Averages – (1112) 5-day, (1090) 20-day, (1083) 50-day, (1087) 100-day, (1072) 200-day

ZMK26 Moving Averages – (310.2) 5-day, (302.5) 20-day, (305.1) 50-day, (308.6) 100-day, (307.0) 200-day

ZLK26 Moving Averages – (57.68) 5-day, (55.59) 20-day, (52.62) 50-day, (52.12) 100-day, (52.15) 200-day

CORN –

May ’26 Corn settled at 435 (-6) (ZCK26) high of 441, low of 435. December ’26 Corn (ZCZ26) settled at 460 (-4). Cash price is 430 (+0.50)

Corn sold off today with wheat. Export inspections were 1.5 mmt at 44% of the USDA forecast, compared to the 5-year average at 31.5%. The pace needed to hit the USDA estimate is 1.6 mmt. Cumulative exports for the 2025/26 marketing year are at all-time high at 1.4077 bb, +44.3% YoY. Funds reduced their net short in corn to 48k contracts. The USDA released its long-term projections through 2035. The USDA forecasts slight growth in domestic demand driven primarily by feed and residual use, while corn use for ethanol is expected to be flat. Food, Seed, and Industrial use is expected to decline slightly through 2035.

ZCK26 Moving Averages – (438) 5-day, (436) 20-day, (443) 50-day, (446) 100-day, (449) 200-day

ZCZ26 Moving Averages – (461) 5-day, (457) 20-day, (459) 50-day, (460) 100-day, (459) 200-day

WHEAT –

May Chicago Wheat (ZWK26) settled at 542 (-6), with a high of 548, low of 538.  December ‘26 Wheat (ZWZ26) settled at 581 (-4). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 542 (-3). May KC Wheat (KEK5) settled at 550 (-3).

Wheat led the grain lower today after a 7 ¾ cent break in the overnight session. The dry part of Southern Russia is seeing improved moisture levels. Export inspections were 375k mt at 72.3% of the USDA forecast, compared to the 5-year average at 65.4%. The pace needed to hit the USDA estimate is 439k mt. Cumulative exports for the 2025/26 marketing year are at a 6-year high at 650.5 mb, +18.9% YoY. Ending stocks for corn, wheat, and beans are all at a 5-year high, but cash prices for HRW and SRW have not been tracking burdensome stocks.

ZWK26 Moving Averages – (546) 5-day, (538) 20-day, (532) 50-day, (540) 100-day, (561) 200-day

ZWZ26 Moving Averages – (585) 5-day, (581) 20-day, (574) 50-day, (581) 100-day, (601) 200-day