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Soybeans–
Bean conditions were left unchanged at 66%, compared to 67% at this time last year. The states that saw the largest increases in crop conditions were South Dakota, Nebraska, Missouri, Louisiana, and Arkansas. There were 503 deliveries of soybeans overnight, along with 642 of soybean meal and 7 bean oil. Yesterday’s reports were not enough to start a rally. Attention is now focused on the weather.
Soybean exports for the week ending June 26th were 224k mt, at 91.1% of the USDA forecast. The 5-year average for this time of year is 88.3%.
Acreage:
3/31: 83.495M
6/30 Est: 83.655M
6/30 Actual: 83.380M
Change 3/31 – 6/30: -0.115M
Stocks:
6/30/24: 970M
6/30 Est.: 980M
6/30 Actual: 1.008B
Est./Actual Change: 0.038
July Soybeans (ZSN25) settled at 1024 (-0.5), high of 1026, low of 1012. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1027 (+0.25). Cash price is at 998 (-4)
July Bean Meal (ZMN25) settled at 269.2 (-2.1) high of 269.7, low of 268.7
July Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 53.76 (+1.25) high of 53.76, low of 52.34
The July Meal to Oil ratio (50.04% Meal – 49.96% Oil)
ZSN25 Moving Averages – (1025) 5-day, (1049) 20-day, (1051) 50-day, (1046) 100-day, (1046) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1022) 5-day, (1037) 20-day, (1036) 50-day, (1031) 100-day, (1033) 200-day
ZMN25 Moving Averages – (271.7) 5-day, (285.8) 20-day, (291.7) 50-day, (299) 100-day, (308.3) 200-day
ZLN25 Moving Averages – (52.61) 5-day, (50.84) 20-day, (49.80) 50-day, (47.58) 100-day, (45.69) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 24th showed soybeans Managed Money traders sold -35,717 contracts to their bringing their net long total to 23,448 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 25,042 contracts bringing their net short position to -146,800 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was 32,861 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 24th showed meal Managed Money traders sold -2,999 contracts, moving to a net short position of -110,080 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 3,907 contracts bringing their net short position to -38,728. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of – 73,920 contracts.
For bean oil, the Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 24th showed Managed Money traders were net long 44,319 contracts after selling -1,824 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 68,760 contracts.
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CORN –
July Corn (ZCN25) settled at 421 (-0.50), high of 423, low of 414. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 422 (-3). Cash price is 441 (+0.875)
Corn rallied 6 cents off the low of the day closing at 421, after trading 5 cents lower in the overnight session. The USDA estimated 3.6m acres left to plant, which is about average for this time of year. The weather forecast for the next 2 weeks shows no signs of extreme heat in the plains or the Midwest as we head into the pollination time period in the latter half of July. Corn conditions sit at 73%, with a 3% increase on the week. Corn conditions are at a 7-year high for this week of the year. The Dakotas, Colorado, Nebraska, and Texas were the states that saw the largest improvement in crop conditions.
Looking abroad, Brazil’s crop is estimated at 130.6 mt, with harvest 18% complete, according to AgRural. Harvest progress in Brazil lags behind due to rain and frost issues, but a very large crop is still anticipated. Last year at this time, Brazil was done with close to 50% of its harvest. Ukraine’s marketing year is now finished, with exports down just above 25% y/oy.
For the week ending June 26th, exports were 1.3 mt at 83.2% of the USDA forecast. The 5-year average for this week of the year is 76.1%.
Acreage:
3/31: 95.326M
6/30 Est: 95.350M
6/30 Actual: 95.203M
Change 3/31 – 6/30: -0.147M
Stocks:
6/30/24: 4.993B
6/30 Est.: 4.641B
6/30 Actual: 4.644B
Est./Actual Change: -0.349
ZCN25 Moving Averages – (415) 5-day, (429) 20-day, (447) 50-day, (465) 100-day, (461) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (423) 5-day, (436) 20-day, (442) 50-day, (450) 100-day, (447) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 24th showed that corn Managed Money bought 2,506 contracts bringing their net position to -182,282 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 2,113 contracts bringing their net position to -61,180. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -183,120 contracts.
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WHEAT –
July Chicago Wheat (ZWN25) settled at 537 (+8), with a high of 540, low of 526. September Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 549 (+10). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 517 (-2). September KC Wheat (KEN25) settled at 510 (+4).
Acreage:
3/31: 45.350M
6/30 Est: 45.438M
6/30 Actual: 45.478M
Change 3/31 – 6/30: +0.128M
Stocks:
6/30/24: 702M
6/30 Est.: 836M
6/30 Actual: 851M
Est./Actual Change: +0.149
Wheat was up 6 cents in overnight trading and closed higher again during the daytime session. If wheat can continue to rise, it may help corn and soybeans see higher prices as well. Wheat was supported by a weaker dollar, which continues to keep falling. Winter wheat conditions dropped 1%, HRW was up 2%, SRW was up 1%, and HRS was down 1% on the week. Winter wheat harvest is at 37% complete, up 18%. Overnight there 193 Chicago wheat deliveries and 310 for KC wheat. Russian wheat prices were down $3 to $224 FOB as harvest continues in southern Russia. If Russian and EU wheat prices start to rally that would be a very bullish signal for domestic wheat futures with funds heavily short.
Wheat exports for the week ending June 26th, were 434k mt at 5.7% of the USDA forecast. The 5-year average for this time of year is 6.2%.
The March-May timeframe showed the 5th-lowest usage on record for wheat, indicating a demand problem.
ZWN25 Moving Averages – (528) 5-day, (540) 20-day, (537) 50-day, (556) 100-day, (573) 200-day
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (541) 5-day, (555) 20-day, (551) 50-day, (571) 100-day, (586) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 24th showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -64,667 contracts, having decreased their short position by 16,686 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -12,361 contracts to bring their net long position to 14,209 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -75,195 contracts.
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Hans Schmit
Account Executive Walsh Trading
Direct 312-765-7311
Toll Free 800-993-5449
Fax 312 256 0109 fax
hschmit@walshtrading.com
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