Soybeans–
The next USDA report is coming up. The August WASDE will be released on Tuesday. Weather has been favorable all season long, but now there is some discussion of sudden death syndrome in some soybean fields. Soybeans were lower again today, with no weather premium being added. Analysts are expecting a slight raise in yield on Tuesday. Despite the strong exports yesterday, the market is still waiting on any trade deal news with China, which the world’s largest soybean buyer.
September Soybeans (ZSU25) settled at 967 (-6), high of 978, low of 966. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 987 (-6), high of 998, low of 986. Cash price is at 968 (+9)
September Bean Meal (ZMU25) settled at 276.6 (+0.5) high of 278.4, low of 275
September Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 52.71 (-0.79) high of 53.83, low of 52.41
The September Meal to Oil ratio (51.21% Meal – 48.79% Oil)
ZSU25 Moving Averages – (970) 5-day, (990) 20-day, (1011) 50-day, (1016) 100-day, (1020) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (990) 5-day, (1007) 20-day, (1023) 50-day, (1024) 100-day, (1025) 200-day
ZMU25 Moving Averages – (275.9) 5-day, (272.9) 20-day, (283.1) 50-day, (292.7) 100-day, (303.2) 200-day
ZLU25 Moving Averages – (53.62) 5-day, (55.13) 20-day, (52.88) 50-day, (50.24) 100-day, (47.15) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week July 22 showed soybean Managed Money traders bought 21,412 contracts to their bringing their net short to -10,866 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -19,646 contracts bringing their net short position to -101,647 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -13,480 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 22 showed meal Managed Money traders bought 3,273 contracts, moving to a net short position of -129,743 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -3,960 contracts bringing their net short position to -34,832. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -78,416 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 22 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 55,326 contracts after buying 12,105 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 86,179 contracts.
CORN –
September Corn (ZCU25) settled at 382 (-1), high of 389, low of 382. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 405 (-1). Cash price is 401 (+4)
December corn is holding firmly above $4, closing at 406. Demand has been strong for corn. The USDA is expected to increase new crop exports. Last week’s corn sales were the 3rd highest in history. Corn sales were made to Mexico, Colombia, South Korea, and unknown. Looking abroad, Argentina’s corn harvest is now estimated at 89% complete. In Europe, French corn conditions dropped 2% from the week prior. French corn production is estimated 5.5% lower than a year ago.
ZCU25 Moving Averages – (383) 5-day, (394) 20-day, (408) 50-day, (424) 100-day, (435) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (404) 5-day, (414) 20-day, (425) 50-day, (437) 100-day, (443) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 22 showed that corn Managed Money sold -2,610 contracts bringing their net position to -177,365 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 12,062 contracts bringing their net position to -28,232. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -199,643 contracts.
WHEAT –
September Chicago Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 518 (+9), with a high of 520, low of 508. December Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 539 (+0.75). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 478 (-0.25). September KC Wheat (KEU25) settled at 521 (+10).
Wheat was down a quarter point in the overnight session and down slightly during the day today. Wheat is seeing some short covering along with the rally yesterday. Exports continue to show strength. The top buyers on yesterday’s weekly export report were Nigeria, Mexico, South Korea, and Bangladesh. Putin and Trump are expected to meet next week to discuss a resolution to the war in Ukraine. Winter wheat under drought was unchanged at 30%, which 10% lower than a year ago. The drought in winter wheat is extended over last year at 35% and 18% respectively. In Europe, the France’s harvest is 94% complete, with production expected to be 17% higher than last year.
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (513) 5-day, (530) 20-day, (544) 50-day, (552) 100-day, (573) 200-day
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (533) 5-day, (551) 20-day, (566) 50-day, (574) 100-day, (593) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending July 22 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -52,041 contracts, having decreased their short position by 8,446 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -6,882 contracts to bring their net short position to -1,123 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -65,351 contracts.
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