Soybeans–
Soybeans closed nearly unchanged today, after trading down 5 1/2 cents in the overnight session. Argentina is facing economic challenges with a collapse in the country’s currency and the bond market. Argentina is temporarily removing the export tax on grain to incentivize farmer selling and to bring in dollars. The removal of the export tax means Argentina’s farmers will be 25% more per dollar. China continues to play with the US; importing soybeans for August at record pace, with 85% of imports coming from Brazil. A US and China trade deal will likely be pushed out until early 2026. Soybeans are currently 9% harvested, compared to 12% this last year. Soybean meal does not have any reason to rally. Meanwhile, the soybean oil market could also see more downside with other oils becoming more competitive.
November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1012 (+1), high of 1015, low of 1005. January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1031 (+1), high of 1035, low of 1024. Cash price is at 969 (-14)
October Bean Meal (ZMV25) settled at 275.1 (-3.8) high of 278.8, low of 274.6
October Bean Oil (ZLV25) settled at 49.35 (+0.18) high of 49.46, low of 48.36
The September Meal to Oil ratio (52.72% Meal – 47.28% Oil)
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1026) 5-day, (1036) 20-day, (1026) 50-day, (1030) 100-day, (1027) 200-day
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1045) 5-day, (1055) 20-day, (1044) 50-day, (1046) 100-day, (1041) 200-day
ZMV25 Moving Averages – (280.8) 5-day, (283.0) 20-day, (281.4) 50-day, (288.4) 100-day, (300.1) 200-day
ZLV25 Moving Averages – (50.07) 5-day, (51.22) 20-day, (53.03) 50-day, (51.87) 100-day, (48.18) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 16 showed soybean Managed Money traders bought 17,001 contracts bringing their bringing their net long position to 2,287 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -16,603 contracts bringing their net short position to -119,674 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -118 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 19 showed meal Managed Money traders bought 3,013 contracts, bringing their net short position of -82,772 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 919 contracts bringing their net short position to -66,328. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -40,540 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 19 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 21,388 contracts after buying 17,726 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 43,179 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 426 (+4), high of 426, low of 418. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 442 (+4). Cash price is 409 (-2)
December corn traded 4 cents higher, after trading 1/4 cent lower in the overnight session. December corn looks bullish, closing above the 100-day moving average today. Corn is currently 11% harvested versus 7% a week ago. Last year at this time, corn was 13% harvested. There was a flash sale this morning for 122k mt of corn sold to Mexico, with 100k towards the current marketing year and 22k for next year. Top export destinations last week were Mexico, Japan, and Colombia. Mexican production is estimated 8% over last year, while Brazil planting is estimated at 25% complete. Next week the USDA will release its quarterly Grain Stocks report.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (424) 5-day, (420) 20-day, (414) 50-day, (425) 100-day, (439) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (441) 5-day, (438) 20-day, (432) 50-day, (442) 100-day, (453) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 19 showed that corn Managed Money bought 19,878 contracts bringing their net position to -80,051 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -15,920 contracts bringing their net position to -108,290. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -102,799 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 520 (+10), with a high of 521, low of 507. March 26’ Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 539 (+9). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 455 (-11). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 511 (+9).
Wheat traded 10 cents higher today, after trading close to unchanged in the overnight session. After today’s rally December wheat is approaching the next level of resistance at 421. If wheat can close above 421, the next level of resistance is 434. Winter wheat planting is now 20% complete, compared to 5-year average at 23%. Meanwhile, HRS harvest is 96% complete. Today’s move come’s as a surprise as open interest increased by over 7500 contracts on yesterday’s move lower.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (521) 5-day, (523) 20-day, (534) 50-day, (553) 100-day, (579) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (539) 5-day, (541) 20-day, (552) 50-day, (572) 100-day, (596) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 19 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -85,825 contracts, having decreased their short position by 6,569 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -7,2402 contracts to bring their net short position to 13,618 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -75,203 contracts.
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