Can wheat keep on running?……………….. Beans may be experiencing the old “Buy the rumor and sell the fact!”…………….Corn is stuck between the two…………………..Futures might rally and, spreads might widen and basis levels might be met with a lot of movement if they raise their heads as temporary storage stocks could be moving before Spring………………
We still sense that the January seeding report on wheat might reveal less acreage planted in the Plains and mid South. Hard red wheat acres could see a significant reduction and this might give the KWN/WN spread more reason to return to normal with Kansas City showing a premium to soft red……………Yet, the stocks report and final production report set to be released the same date might show that soft red remains tighter than hard through harvest……………………..Until then the market might be focusing on Black Sea activity and disruptions which has diverted business to the USA.
Corn stocks still appear to be ample and spreads have not shown any strength since harvesting………………Unplanted wheat acres might go to corn in the Spring instead of soybeans given the present corn/bean ratio which might keep new December constrained………..A butterfly of March and December wings with a July body could be under consideration for the next couple of months……..
The weather in Brazil is still very good and the crop size is growing……..We need China to buy more beans as the complex still feels like a buyer’s market
Yet ,all might be for naught as the geopolitical happenings are moving at an extremely rapid pace and we have to be vigilant 24/7/365……………Given this uncertainty in such tense times and the recent change in stance by our Federal Reserve it appears as though there’s more upside than downside risk at present price levels……………………
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited
within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.
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