Soybeans–
The WASDE report comes out tomorrow morning. The average estimate for soybean yield is 53.2 bpa, compared to 53.6 bpa in August. Analyst estimates for soybean yield are 54.0 bpa on the high end and 52.4 bpa on the low end. Acreage is expected to be unchanged at 80.1 ma. The average estimate for soybean production is 4,262 bb, compared to 4,292 bb in August. Rainfall in major soybean growing areas is reported at 0.89’ below normal, making it the driest August on record since 2013. China is still not buying any US soybeans. The last soybean shipment to China was May 29.
November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1033 (+8), high of 1035, low of 1022. January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1052 (+7), high of 1054, low of 1042. Cash price is at 985 (-5)
October Bean Meal (ZMV25) settled at 286.1 (+2.6) high of 287.0, low of 282.3
October Bean Oil (ZLV25) settled at 51.08 (+0.61) high of 50.12, low of 50.42
The September Meal to Oil ratio (52.51% Meal – 47.49% Oil)
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1030) 5-day, (1040) 20-day, (1024) 50-day, (1030) 100-day, (1026) 200-day
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1049) 5-day, (1059) 20-day, (1042) 50-day, (1045) 100-day, (1039) 200-day
ZMV25 Moving Averages – (283.9) 5-day, (285.1) 20-day, (280.9) 50-day, (289.8) 100-day, (301.1) 200-day
ZLV25 Moving Averages – (50.65) 5-day, (52.10) 20-day, (53.51) 50-day, (51.70) 100-day, (47.83) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed soybean Managed Money traders bought 35,273 contracts bringing their bringing their net long position to 3 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -28,135 contracts bringing their net short position to -114,151 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -4,791 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed meal Managed Money traders bought 24,070 contracts, bringing their net short position of -85,239 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -11,089 contracts bringing their net short position to -60,857. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -40,571 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 31,342 contracts after selling -13,070 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 50,491 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 419 (+2), high of 421, low of 416. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 437 (+2). Cash price is 414 (-2)
For the WASDE report tomorrow, corn yield is estimated at 186 bpa, compared to 188.8 bpa in August. Corn production is estimated at 16,502 bb versus 16,742 bb in August. Acreage is expected at 88.7 ma, no change from last month. We know big crops are on the way in the US and South America l but demand is strong. The Rosario Grain Exchange raised their estimate for 2024/25 production to 50 mt, +1.5 mt. The forecast for Argentina’s new crop corn was raised to 61 mt. December corn broke the 417 resistance today that corn was struggling to break. The report tomorrow will be important to see If corn can follow through to the upside. The eastern corn belt is expected to stay dry, avoiding any major rainfall.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (419) 5-day, (412) 20-day, (413) 50-day, (428) 100-day, (440) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (437) 5-day, (430) 20-day, (431) 50-day, (444) 100-day, (453) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed that corn Managed Money bought 31,464 contracts bringing their net position to -144,650 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -25,041 contracts bringing their net position to -57,745. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -163,744 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 521 (+6), with a high of 522, low of 512. March 26’ Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 538 (+5). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 454 (-10). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 510 (+3).
Wheat traded 6 ¼ cents higher today after trading slightly lower in the overnight. Ending stocks are expected at 865 mb, which below the 869 mb figure from August. Global harvests continue to see higher production estimates. Expana raised their estimate for EU SRW to 136.1 mt, which is a record high. The new estimate from Expana is 3.3 mt higher than their prior estimate. Russia also had their production estimate raised by both IKAR and SovEcon. CBOT wheat volatility hit its lowest level in years yesterday. The last time volatility was this low was November 2020, just before the huge rally.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (520) 5-day, (525) 20-day, (542) 50-day, (558) 100-day, (582) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (537) 5-day, (542) 20-day, (560) 50-day, (577) 100-day, (599) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 19 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -98,132 contracts, having increased their short position by -8,837 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 2,615 contracts to bring their net long position to 25,061 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -163,744 contracts.
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