WEDNESDAY MIDDAY RADAR – The morning radar shows heavy rain and storms over western and central TN, west & central KY & the southern half of IND with about 70% coverage. Additional storms can be found over the FL panhandle (where they really need that rain) and moderate rain showers over 30% of eastern WI & north MI as well as far east OH. CLICK HERE FOR EAST LOADING RADAR
RAINFALL LAST 24 HRS — ENDING 0700 cdt MAY 24 – There were 2 main areas of rain in the last 24 hrs — FIRST area was over east TX, north LA, se half of ARK, most of MS, AL, TN, GA, SC, NC & VA. Rainfall amounts were in the 0.25 -1.5″6-38mm with 70% coverage. There were some amounts to 2″/50mm over far se AL into sw GA — SECOND area saw 0.25-0.75″/6-20mm over central & north ILL … central & eastern WI … central se MN with 50% coverage.
TUESDAY MAX TEMPS – 50s over central NEB, east SD, southern MN, far nw IA into northern WI … 60s over ND, west SD, east MT/WY, COL, west NEB, all of KS, west OK into west TX and over all of MO, rest of IA, south WI, central north ILL into MI … 70s over OH, IND, south ILL, KY, TN, ARK, LA, MS, AL, GA, east OK, central TX … 80s over south TX.
1-5 DAY = The weather models are in pretty good agreement for next 4 days. The European & GFS models show a general 1-4″ /25-100mm rainfall over eastern ARK, north MS, all of TN, all of KY, central & southern ILL, all of IND, all of OH & WVA & PA. The European model is in strong agreement with this except that it has a sharper cut off to the rain shield on the NW side. In other words the European model keeps central & northern MO & ILL dry. In addition the GFS model has 0.5-1.5″ 12-38mm rains over 60% of NEB & south SD. The European model has no rain of any kind in these areas.
6-10 DAY = The three weather models are in somewhat better agreement than they were yesterday but still not very close. The European model keeps all the Dakotas, MN, IA, WI & most of the ECB dry with rainfall amounts generally under 0.25″/6mm for the 6-10 day. It has a significant band of 1-4″/25-100mm rains with 60% coverage over the TX panhandle, western & central OK, all of KS except for the far ne corner of KS & into the north third of MO. The GFS model has more rain over the WCB and less rain over KS, OK, west TX. The GFS shows a 1-3″25-75mm rains with 60% coverage over eastern NEB, IA, MO & all of ILL.
Interestingly again we see a situation where the GFS & European ensembles are not in agreement with the regular or operational models. The European and GFS ensemble models do NOT have significant rain over any portion of the WCB and they certainly do not have significant rain over KS & MO. Instead both of the GFS and European ensembles show a significant rain event over central & se TX, LA, MS, AL into south ARK. In this area rainfall amounts of 1-3″/ 25-75mm seem likely with 70% coverage. Lighter rains extend up into TN, KY, OH, south PA & the eastern Great Lakes but here the rainfall amounts are generally under 0.75″/20mm. This sort of light rain covers most of the Midwest and the central Plains on the GFS & European ensembles but it is certainly not a significant or major rain.
11-15 DAY = All three models continue to show a wet pattern for the 11 to 15 day with a widespread 0.5-1.75″/12-45MM rainfall over 80% of the entire Midwest extending into KY, TN, north AL, MS, all of MO, northern ARK, east OK & eastern KS.