WEDNESDAY AM RADAR — FAST EAST LOADING RADAR
Scattered showers and weak storms over southern Manitoba Canada into far eastern ND, far western MN… which becomes heavier over southwest MN into far northwest IA, eastern NEB into central KS… 2ND area over central AL, northern GA into southern SC.
RAINFALL LAST 24 HRS ending 0700 cdt 9 AUGUST
There were several areas of light to moderate rain 0.25-1.25″/ 6-32mm over southern Manitoba into western half of ND/ SD … western/ central NEB … eastern COL, western KS with coverage 30-40%. Heavier rains to 2.5″/60mm over 60% of western half of TX Panhandle. 2nd area of much heavier rains fell over 50% of LA and 60 to 70% of central & southern MS /AL/ GA/ SC with amounts 0.50-3.0″/12-75mm.
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY
Temps around 78 -83 over all of the Midwest into TN, MO, all of KS/ eastern COL, eastern NEB/ SD/ ND… into MS, AL, GA … upper 80s to 90 over western ND, eastern MT, western SD, eastern WY, OK, LA, ARK, TX.
MODELS WETTER IN 6-10 DAY OVER CENTRAL PLAINS/ WCB
For the past two weeks at least I have been arguing that the second half of August would turn significantly wetter and the temperatures will bounce back to near normal over the Plains and the Midwest – especially over the WCB. The weather models this morning clearly support that trend, especially in the 6-10.
1-5 DAY = no big changes with regard to the lack of rainfall over the heart of the Midwest. All the models keep Kentucky, Ohio, Indiana, southern Michigan, Illinois, southern Wisconsin and most of Iowa as well as northeast Missouri dry over the next 5 days. And the models don’t show much change with regard to the rain over the Deep South that extends into much of Oklahoma and all of Kansas into eastern Colorado. The rainfall amounts over the Deep South range from 1-3″/25-75mm but the models are heavier with the rains over western Arkansas …the northern half of Oklahoma and southern Kansas with rainfall amounts there between 2-6″/ 50-150mm although the operational GFS has a bullseye of 9″/225mm over far northeastern Oklahoma.
More important however is the increasing rain showing up over western and central Nebraska …much of North and South Dakota and Minnesota. European, Canadian, GFS models all show anywhere from 1-3″/ 25-75mm with 50% coverage in these areas. This is a significant increase in what the data was showing yesterday afternoon.
6-10 DAY = at first glance the operational European model keeps most of the Midwest DRY – from eastern Iowa all the way into Ohio and Pennsylvania as well as a good portion of Missouri/ Kentucky. But the GFS has more rain over the WCB and if we look at the various ensemble data – which is probably the best thing to do here – we see increases in the rainfall amounts over the central Plains and the WCB on the European …Canadian …and GFS ensembles. This image shows all three models ENSEMBLES and as you can see they are all quite wet relatively speaking when compared to what the data was showing yesterday.
The 6 -10 Day model ensemble
11-15 DAY = All three models have an area of significant rain covering much of the Deep South and the Midwest but the heaviest rains are clearly situated over Missouri, Illinois, Iowa and southern Wisconsin. Rainfall amounts here are generally in the 1-2″/25-50mm range and I see no reason to disagree with this.