WEDENESDAY AM RADAR – FAST EAST LOADING RADAR
The Wednesday morning radar shows moderate to heavy storms have developed over much of western and central ND and have pushed into the far southeast portions of Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. The additional widely scattered showers are over 20% of western SD and 30% of western NEB. A second area of showers and storms can be found over central and east central Texas into northern Louisiana.
TUESDAY MAX TEMPS
80s over all of the Midwest into TN, KY, ARK, Tx Panhandle, OK, MO, KS, NEB, SD, ND into eastern COL… low 90s over eastern MT/WY, western NEB, central and eastern TX into LA.
As you can see there are several areas of light to moderate rain across various portions of the Plains and Midwest. Over the western Dakotas as well as eastern MT and WY and into western NEB … rainfall amounts range from 0.25-1.0″/ 6-25mm with 50% coverage. There is also some widely scattered activity with the same rainfall amounts over 30 to 40% of eastern ILL and IND. The third main area can be found across southwestern and central TX into northeastern TX and far southwestern ARK and LA. Here the rainfall amounts range from 0.25-1.5″/6-38mm with 50 to 60% coverage.
Over central TX, south of Longview rainfall amounts were up to 3-4″/ 75-100mm in a few areas.
SUMMARY — CHANGES IN 6-10D — SOMEWHAT DRIER OVER MIDWEST, WET OVER DELTA / DEEP SOUTH/ SE STATES
1-5 DAY – If you account for the usual biases of the models – particularly the GFS model — you will find that over the next two weeks there is pretty good agreement. Once again we see that the GFS is much wetter over the next 4-5 days in the ECB region than the European or the Canadian models. But this morning the European ensemble does have some rain over Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky over the next 5 days and now show rains there up to 1 “/25mm with 50 to 60% coverage. Over Wisconsin, Minnesota and the Dakotas … the rainfall amounts and overall coverage are unchanged from what we saw yesterday morning and yesterday afternoon –0.5 -1.75″/ 20-45mm overall Oklahoma, northern and eastern, Texas …Arkansas …Louisiana …Mississippi …and Alabama the GFS model is significantly wetter. In fact it has a concentrated area of 2-7″/ 50-175mm rains over northern Texas and southern Oklahoma into southwest Arkansas. The European and Canadian models have some rain over eastern Kansas, eastern Oklahoma, Missouri and Arkansas but the rainfall amounts are not nearly as heavy –0.50-2.0″/ 12-50mm with 50% coverage.
6-10 DAY – All models show significant widespread heavy rain in the 6 to 10 day covering much of the central and lower Plains … across the Deep South into the Tennessee Valley and into lower portions of the Midwest (by that we mean areas south of I- 70 and close to the Ohio River). There is some difference as to which areas will see the heaviest rains but the overall trend is quite strong on the models this morning.
In this case we like the European model and the European ensemble and it shows an impressive area of 2-8″/50-200mm rains over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles as well as all of Oklahoma …northern half Arkansas …the southern third of Missouri …all of Tennessee and Kentucky …with lighter rain amounts into the Carolinas …Virginia and West Virginia …as well as Georgia …Alabama and Mississippi.
These rains on the European model do not reach as far north as Interstate 70 so most of the Midwest on the European model as well as the central and upper Plains is DRY in the 6-10 DAY. This is a shift and a change from yesterday because for the Midwest the European model and European ensemble IS drier.
The GFS model is somewhat similar but it has its heaviest rains over Virginia …the Carolinas …Kentucky …Tennessee and northern Georgia with a secondary area of 2″/50mm rains or greater over north Texas… most of Oklahoma and Arkansas. For the Midwest the GFS and GFS ensemble has lighter rains as far north as Interstate 80 but these rains are generally under 1″/25mm.
11-15 DAY – The model agreement is very strong in the 11 to 15 day. They show significant rains over much of the lower Plains …the Delta the Gulf Coast states and the southeastern states into Pennsylvania, New York State and New Jersey. Most of the Midwest as well as the central & upper Plains see light rains with amounts under 0.75″/20mm. This is NOT a change for the data suggest the dates of things are fairly consistent in the 11 to 15 day
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