WEDNESDAY AM RADAR
As forecasted by the short range models over the past two days the morning radar shows significant showers and thunderstorms which developed in the predawn hours have now moved through most of eastern Nebraska and pushed into northeastern Kansas. The showers and thunderstorms of moderate intensity continue over western Iowa into southeastern Minnesota and the northern half of Wisconsin.
TUESDAY MAX TEMPS
70s over eastern MN, MI, northern IND/OH… 80s over eastern MT/WY/ND, western MN, eastern IA, ILL, southern IND/OH/KY… Low 90s over TN, MS, AL, GA, LA, eastern MO, western IA, eastern SD… 95-100 over ARK, western MO, all of TX, OK, western and central KS, all of NEB, eastern COL.
Not surprisingly the overnight rains in central and eastern Nebraska …southeastern South Dakota and the southern half of Minnesota into northern Wisconsin was significant. Most areas saw rainfall amounts between 0.5-1.5″/ 12-38mm and the coverage was 60 to 70%. However over north central Nebraska and portions of southeastern South Dakota and in a few isolated areas in southern Minnesota rainfall amounts range between 2-4″/50-100mm inches over the last 24 hours.
SUMMARY
1-5 DAY – Overnight there was a significant convergence of all the weather models towards a wetter solution in the WCB over the next 24 hours. The latest information and data suggests however that there is a very strong piece of energy in the upper levels of the atmosphere coming down from southwest Canada which will favor the short range models with their heavy rainfall amounts.
This image shows the expected radar based upon these high resolution short range models from early WED. The first image is for 6:00 cdt and we can see numerous moderate to heavy rain and storms over north central Kansas … the eastern third of Nebraska … northwest Iowa, the southern third of Minnesota into northern Wisconsin. The second image shows midday around 11:00 AM cdt and we can see moderate rain over northeastern Kansas into southeastern Nebraska …central and southern Iowa …southeast Minnesota and again northern Wisconsin. And finally the third image shows what the radar could look like at 3:30 pm cdt Wednesday afternoon with strong thunderstorms that are re-developing over central and eastern Iowa.
This projection is from the 4Km NAM model which is the primary short range model used in the US by NWS and all meteorologists. Notice that the numerous dark red areas which represent rainfall amounts of 3-4″/ 75-100mm and the small purple areas which represent rainfall amounts of 5-6″/ 125-150mm. BUT there are also large gaps in the coverage. This model says the best rains will be over west central Illinois. The overall coverage is only about 50% in Iowa and Nebraska.
Here is the short range high resolution Canadian model which shows total rainfall for the next 48 hours. Notice that again that western Iowa and northern Missouri into central Illinois see the best rains with amounts between 0.5 – 2.0″/ 12-50mm but there is an area of 3-4″/75-100mm rains over far northeastern Missouri. Again there are gaps in the rain shield over portions of Iowa and eastern Nebraska.
Finally I present on the LEFT the 0z early WED morning GFS model which has significantly increased the rain over Iowa, northeastern Missouri …and central and southern Illinois when you compare this GFS run to the midday GFS model on Tuesday afternoon. Most of these rains fall over the next 60 hrs. The model shows 1-3″/ 25-75mm over the northern half of Nebraska with 60% coverage … 70% coverage over all of Iowa and 60 to 70% coverage over central and southern Illinois. There are additional moderate rains over southern Indiana …Kentucky …and Tennessee. On the RIGHT the European model after being rather dry over the past few runs has also turned much wetter over the WCB.
6-10 DAY – in the 6 to 10 day forecast I present the operational or regular GFS model on the LEFT and the GFS ensemble on the RIGHT. Notice that I have highlighted two features.
AREA A which is a region of significant rain over much of Minnesota and Wisconsin on the regular GFS model (LEFT) but that rain area does not exist on the GFS ensemble (RIGHT). This tells us that the idea of a significant rain event in the 6-10 day over Minnesota and Wisconsin is not likely since the ensemble does not support this.
The second area I have highlighted is AREA B. This is a large area of significant rain stretching from eastern Colorado into western portions of Kansas …much of Oklahoma and northern Texas …across the Delta and the Gulf coast states …and into South Carolina. The GFS ensemble shows some of this rain though not quite as heavy. This indicates that there is likely be some areas of moderate to potentially heavy rain across portions of Oklahoma …Texas …and the Gulf coast in the 6-10DAY
11-15 DAY – In the 11 to 15 day the forecast is unchanged. The weather models show the deep trough over the eastern US breaking down and return to a more typical zonal or west to east weather pattern during the second week of August. This results in an increase in rain potential over much of the Midwest on the Canadian GFS and European extended in some places. That being said, all the models clearly show the best rains being centered over the deep South and all the Gulf Coast states into the Carolinas and Virginia. The Midwest and the eastern Plains see some rains but for the most part the data is showing the rains to be generally under 1.25″/32mm.
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