WEDNESDAY AM RADAR — CLICK HERE TO SEE FAST LOADING RADAR
There are storms over far eastern NEB and over central and eastern IA… and over northwest ND into southeast corner of Saskatchewan.
TUESDAY MAX TEMPS – 70s over ND, east MT, east WY, north MN… 80s over south MN, WI, SD, western NEB, east COL and over southern IND & OH, south MO, ARK, LA, MS, AL, GA… low 90s over KY, TN, north IND and OH, north MO, east KS, east OK, east TN… Mid 90s over central TX, central OK & KS, much of IA and east NEB and all of ILL… 95-100 over west KS, OK & TX Panhandle into sw TX.
RAINFALL LAST 24 HRS — ending 0700 14 JUNE – This image shows the total rainfall in last 24 hours over the Plains and Midwest. Generally the rainfall amounts are in the range from 0.5-1.5″/ 12-38mm but there have been areas which have seen rainfall amounts between 1.5-3.0″/ 38-75mm in the last 24 hours. Specifically much of eastern Nebraska, central and northern Minnesota and some small areas in west central Indiana and northwest Ohio. On the other hand, large portions of eastern Iowa, Illinois, Missouri as well as western Kentucky and southwest Indiana have seen no rain over the last 24 hours.
RAINFALL LAST 48 HRS — 0700 12 JUNE to 0700 14 JUNE – This image shows the total rainfall over the Midwest and the Plains in the last TWO days. As you can see …large portions of eastern North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, eastern Nebraska, the northwest half of Iowa and much of Wisconsin has seen anywhere from 0.5-2.5″/12-60mm but there have been some locations which have seen rainfall amounts between 3-4″ 75-100mm, specifically over central Wisconsin …in and around Lincoln, Nebraska …and west central Minnesota.
This next image shows the total rainfall all the next 7 days but the problem with this map is that it is somewhat deceptive. If we break it down into time increments we see something more significant. For example MOST of the rainfall in the next 7 days will fall over the 3 days. The NWS forecast calls for a general widespread 1-2″ 25-50mm rain across much of the Midwest but the central and upper Plains will remain dry as will the Delta. If we look at the rainfall forecast for DAY 4-5 we see that most of the significant rain is centered over the Great Lakes, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee and that much of the Midwest sees rainfall under 0.5″/ 12mm and most of the Plains are essentially dry OR mostly dry. And if we take a look at the rainfall forecast for DAY 6-7 … we see that most areas of the Midwest see no significant rain and all the important rain is along the East Coast.
1-5 DAY = The GFS and European models are in fairly good agreement over all the next 5 days with respect to rainfall amounts and coverage but there are some differences. The area outlined in black on both of these maps shows the main difference. The GFS model has much heavier rain over portions of Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, northern Missouri, east Nebraska and northeastern Kansas than the European does.
The GFS shows areas of 1-4″/25-100mm with a small cluster of 6″/ 150mm rains over southwest Iowa and northwest Missouri. The European has large gaps in the rainfall coverage over Indiana, Illinois, Iowa and Missouri and the rainfall amounts are generally in the 1-2″/ 25-50mm range.
6-10 DAY = The 6-10D sees excellent model agreement. Most of the Plains and the Midwest regions are dry with a few more isolated small rain events on the GFS than on the European. But for the most part this a pretty good model agreement. The one major difference is that the European has extremely heavy rain over eastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana because of the tropical system that develops in the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS has the system as well but the GFS model keeps the tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico and does not bring heavy rain in eastern Texas.
In the 6-10D, the ensembles are in fair agreement. The European has all the rain essentially running along the spine of the Appalachian Mts where we have drawn in the black line. Most of the Midwest and all the Plains are pretty dry in the European ensemble. The GFS also has the heaviest rains on the East Coast but it has more moderate rains of 0.50-1.5″/ 12-38mm over portions of the ECB and the Great Lakes. The WCB and most of the Plains are dry in the 6-10D GFS ensemble.
SUMMARY – the rains are clearly going to be biased to the east and probably over the Appalachian Mts and the East Coast in this timeframe. Most of the Midwest will be either dry or mostly dry and all the Plains will be quite dry. The overall pattern however does not show any significant heat because the deep trough will be situated on the East Coast (which is why they will see the good rains in the 6-10d). With a trough of the East Coast, the flow will be out of the northwest which will bring in somewhat cooler drier air from south central Canada.
11-15 DAY = The 11 to 15D is very interesting. The operational GFS develops the heat dome over the Midwest and the East Coast in the 11 to 15 which would send temperatures close to 100° for at least a few days. Fortunately or unfortunately – depending on your point of view – the operational GFS in the 11-15D is not very good. So lets looks at the GFS ensemble. While the GFS ensemble does not have a heat dome centered over the heart of the Midwest …it does show a generally strong amplified Ridge covering much of the Midwest and lower Plains as well as the Deep south. So the GFS ensemble does support the idea of above normal temps /heat returning to much of the Midwest as we close out JUNE 2017.
The European ensemble has a ridge centered over the lower Plains, the Deep South and the Lower Midwest but this is not that unusual for this time of year. In another words the European ensembles showing a garden type variety Ridge typical of what we see in late JUNE but nothing too extreme. This implies normal rainfall across the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin and the Great Lakes.
Indeed, looking at the 11-15D … the GFS and European ensembles we see rain fall maps showing exactly that. Since the GFS has a large strong ridge over the Midwest …it has a lot less rain over the Midwest and most of the Plains. Since the European ensemble shows a general garden variety ridge … it has more rain over portions of the WCB and ECB areas.
Once the deep trough over the East Coast leaves … the last week of JUNE should see a shift in the pattern and some sort of Ridge develop over the lower Plains / the Deep South and possibly the lower half of the Midwest. It is possible this Ridge could become extreme as we go into the July 4 long weekend but right now this is speculative and we do not know this for fact.
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