WEDNESDAY AM RADAR – CLICK HERE TO SEE FAST LOADING RADAR
The morning radar shows numerous showers and thunderstorms across a significant portion of the WCB. The coverage is about 60 to 70% over central and eastern Iowa and about 60% across all of Minnesota and far southwest Wisconsin. Storms are easily moved into far northwest Illinois. Additional light to moderate rain showers can be found over central Kansas and far eastern portions of South Dakota.
TUESDAY MAX TEMPS – 70s over all ECB and WCB … 80s over eastern MT, ND, eastern SD, eastern NEB, eastern KS, eastern OK, eastern TX, LA, ARK, MO, TN, MS, AL, GA … 90s over western SD, western NEB, eastern COL, eastern WY, western KS, western OK and western half of TX.
RAINFALL LAST 24 HRS — ending 0700 28 JUNE
The rains overnight fell mainly over the WCB and were significant and beginning of the rainy week which is coming. As you can see from this image rainfall amounts are generally in the 0.50-2.0″/12-50mm range with the 1 to 2 inch areas over southeastern Nebraska… far northwest Iowa into southwest Minnesota. The eastern half of North Dakota also saw these rains of 0.50-1.5″/ 12-38mm with 60 to 70% coverage. The coverage over Nebraska was more like 75% since moderate rains extend back into the Nebraska panhandle. Lighter rains also extended into northern third of Kansas, the rainfall amounts here were generally under 0.5:/12mm.
1-5 DAY = The official 5 DAY and 7 DAY rainfall forecast from NWS remains quite impressive and continues to show a large area of 3-6 “/ 75-150mm rains over the heart of the WCB and over some of the driest areas of the WCB. Significant rains also extend into the northern half of the ECB, north of I-70 and into southern Missouri and eastern Oklahoma.
With respect to the actual forecast models all the next 5 days the model agreement is pretty strong. There is some difference between the models with regard to where the heaviest rains are going to fall and the size of the heaviest rains with respect to the geography. For example the morning GFS model has a large area of 1 -4″/25-100mm rains covering 80% of Iowa and the southern half of Minnesota … and 1-2″/ 25-50mm rains over the northern third of Illinois and 80% of Wisconsin. The morning European model is very similar but the area of 4″/100mm rains over Iowa are significantly smaller. Both models agree that over the next 5 days most of the ECB region will be fairly dry. And both models agree there will be a secondary area of showers and thunderstorms covering central and eastern Oklahoma… northern Arkansas into far southern Missouri.
6-10 DAY = There are significant differences in the operational or regular weather models in the 6-10D The operational or regular GFS model shows a large area of 1-3″/25-75mm rains covering 70 to 80% of the entire Midwest – from the eastern third Nebraska and covering most of Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and northern Kentucky. The European model is somewhat similar except these rains are further to the south – from I-70 southward and as a result the rains miss Iowa and extend into Arkansas and Tennessee.
Fortunately the GFS and European ensembles in the 6-10d are almost identical. They show a general widespread 0.5 -1.5″/ 12-38mm rains over 75% of all the Midwest – from eastern third of Kansas and Nebraska all the way through Ohio into western Pennsylvania. These rains do not reach any portion of Minnesota or the Dakotas however. It should be pointed out that most of these rains fall in D6-D8 and that the pattern turns significantly drier on the back end of the 6-10D.
With respect to the heat ridge/Dome scenario… the weather models show the heat ridge over the Rockies expanding into the Plains and into the WCB portion of the Midwest in this timeframe as we come out of the July 4 holiday weekend. The European ensemble actually has a significant heat dome stretching from Utah and Arizona east into southwest Missouri, Arkansas and Louisiana. This is a little far to the south for textbook heat dome scenario for the Midwest but overall it is a pretty good position for the heat dome to be to impact the Plains and the WCB. These three images show Max temperatures from the high resolution European model valid for July 5, July 6 and July 7. Notice that the serious heat remains mostly over the Plains states with temperatures borderline (Low to Mid 90s) over the WCB and most areas in the ECB regions stay below 90°. We think this is the correct general idea with regard to how hot temperatures will get in the 6-10D.
LINK TO SEE FULL IMAGE LINK TO SEE FULL IMAGE LINK TO SEE FULL IMAGE
11-15 DAY = The weather models are significantly drier in the 11 to 15 day across all portions of the Plains and the Midwest. The Midwest region is not completely dry but most areas do not see rainfall amounts over 0.5″/12mm for the five day interval. With respect to the heat ridge/Dome scenario… there is not much to change from our WEATHER INSIDER newsletter which we sent to you on Tuesday late afternoon. The weather models clearly show the heat ridge sliding back to the west into the Rockies region early in the 11 to 15 day. However the morning models do show the heat ridge trying to expand and push east again by the time we reach July 12 or 13.
In addition the week 3 CFS model has updated and it is dry over most of the Midwest while it has a decent rains over the central Plains. I don’t understand exactly how the model develops above normal rainfall over the central Plains in this pattern so I am discounting that idea but I do believe the week three timeframe will see below normal rainfall over most of the Midwest and Plains.
Moreover the week 3 and week 4 CFS models continue show below normal temperatures over most of the Plains and Midwest. Given the overall pattern this solution makes little sense so for the time being I am discounting this new CFS model run.