RADAR LINK Heavy thunderstorms have developed across much of central and eastern Minnesota, the eastern half of Iowa and into southwestern Wisconsin. Additional moderate rain showers cover 30 to 40% of northern Iowa, west central Minnesota and northeast Minnesota as well as portions of South Dakota. There are additional widely scattered weak rain showers over western portions of Tennessee, Kentucky and south central Indiana.
1-5 DAY – The weather models are in pretty good agreement over the next 5 days. As you can see both models clearly show that the heaviest rains will be over central and northeastern Texas …central and eastern Oklahoma …most of central and eastern Kansas …the western half of Missouri …eastern third of Nebraska …much of Iowa …southern and central Minnesota …and a good portion of Wisconsin. There is some uncertainty between the models as to how much rain is going to fall over Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, southern Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. The European model is significantly lighter with the rainfall amounts in those areas showing fairly large gaps in the rainfall coverage. The GFS model has a much more significant rain shield over a much larger portion of the ECB and it has a second band of 1-3″/ 25-75mm rains running from southeastern Oklahoma into central Arkansas …northwest Tennessee …western and northern Kentucky and into southwestern Ohio.
6-10 DAY – The real differences develop in the 6-10DAY. The map on the LEFT represents the regular GFS model while the map on the right is the Wednesday afternoon European model. As you can see these models do not agree at all with respect to the amount of rainfall that is going to fall over the heart of the Midwest in the 6-10D. The GFS model has a general widespread 0.5 -1.5″ /12-38mm rain covering much of the ECB, the southern half of the WCB with somewhat heavier rains over Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana and the Gulf coast. The European models are dramatically different dropping a large area of 2-5″ /5-125mm rains over northern Arkansas, almost all of Missouri …most of Illinois and Indiana. Obviously these two forecasts are dramatically different.
Complicating this is the fact that the models have been flip flopping for the past two days or more with the rainfall forecast for the 6-10D. For example the European model on Tuesday morning and midday was quite wet for the Midwest areas but then turned drier early Wednesday morning … and now it has turned wet again on Wednesday afternoon. This does not lead to good forecast confidence.
If we take a look at the GFS and the European ensemble we see that in fact the operational European model is by itself. The European ensemble does not show a large area of 2 -5″/ 50-125mm rains over Missouri, Illinois or Indiana. This tells me that the European model is overdoing the rain in these areas in the 6-10DAY.
This is the new 7:00 PM GFS also known as the 18z GFS and as you can see it has a large gap or hole in the Midwest over the exact same area that the European model has heavy rains over northern Arkansas – Missouri – Illinois – and Indiana.
It is possible that these areas could end up seeing heavy rains in the 6-10DAY but right now there is a lot of data which suggests that the European model is overdoing the rain in these areas. There is a high risk, high bust potential to forecasting a big rain for the ECB at this time in the 6-10DAY.
11-15 DAY – There are no surprises or significant changes in the 11 to 15 day. Most of the central and upper plains and Midwest areas are fairly dry but not completely so. And the best rains seem to be centered over the central and lower Plains and the Delta region.
CPC FORECAST MAPS — 6-10 DAY
In the official CPC 6 to 10 day forecast RAINFALL shows a large area of above normal rainfall covering all of eastern Colorado, Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas, the entire Gulf coast up into New England and as far west as Indiana, Michigan and Ohio … including all Kentucky and Indiana. There is an area of below normal rainfall covering most of the WCB and the upper Plains. Temperatures show a huge area of below normal temperatures covering the entire middle portions of the country from the Rockies all the way to the Appalachian Mts. This places most of the central and eastern Plains as well as all the Midwest in the much below normal temperature category.
CPC FORECAST – MAPS — 8-14 DAY
The overall rainfall pattern does not change much from the 6-10 DAY and temperatures remain much below normal over all the Midwest and the eastern Plains … and Below Normal over the East Coast and into the Gulf coast area.
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