Wednesday Afternoon US Grain Weather Summary

walshtradingWeather

The Wednesday afternoon radar shows moderate to heavy snow over the northern third of Minnesota into southwestern portions of western Ontario Canada.  Most of central and northern Wisconsin is seeing steady rain or thunderstorms and significant showers and thunderstorms  some of which are becoming severe have developed over central and northwestern Arkansas …the southern half of Missouri …and the far eastern portions of Oklahoma.    FAST  EAST LOADING RADAR 

The midday 12z   Wednesday operational or regular GFS model came out and it showed a much drier looking pattern for the 6-10day over the Plains  and the Midwest when compared to the previous model runs.  This was also the case with the operational regular 11 to 15 day GFS model.

All weather models have bad  runs  OR  what we call flip flops in the  weather biz.    One the reasons why the GFS is constantly losing in terms of its accuracy  and performance  to the European model is because the GFS model  – for a lot of different reasons -seems to have more these bad model runs  where it comes up with these goofy/  weird solutions.

One way to get around this is by taking a look of the operational run and comparing it to the model  ENSEMBLE.  Typically the operational run should  be  close to very  close  to the  ensemble mean. But as you can see in this image below that is NOT  the case as the GFS ensemble in the 6-10 DAY is significantly wetter than the operational run.

Now  that being said let’s be clear…-the 6 to 10 day forecast IS  going to be drier than the  NEXT 5 DAYS.
But  it will not be as dry  dry as what the operational or regular GFS model was showing.

The  Canadian  6-10 day ensemble is   very close to the  GFS    ensemble  6-10 day

 Next let’s take a look of the 11 to 15 day and compare the operational run to the GFS ensemble.

Again we can see that the in  GFS ensemble  it is significantly wetter than the operational run.

And again  the  111-5  day Canadian Model ensemble  closely matches  the  GFS 11-15 day ensemble.

SUMMARY   the result of this is that it is  pretty clear that the operational GFS in the 6 to 10 day and in the 11 to 15 day seems to be a bad model run.  Those who think that the
pattern is suddenly  going to  towards  a more sustained a dry interval in early and mid MAY 2017  might want to exercise some caution here.  

For those interested, Sean Lusk, Director of Walsh Commercial Hedging Services, hosts a FREE Grain Outlook Webinar every Thursday at 3:00PM CST. Sean will hold his next webinar TOMORROW, Thursday, April 27th. REGISTER NOW.

If you missed last week’s webinar, you may VIEW A RECORDING.