6-10 DAY = The Wednesday afternoon European model came in and it is significantly wetter in the 6-10D in a matter very similar to what we saw with the afternoon operational or regular GFS model and GFS ensemble. This image compares the “regular” GFS model on the LEFT and the European model on the RIGHT — both valid for the 6-10 day. As you can see these are similar solutions although they are not identical. The European model has a more concentrated area of 1 -3″/ 25-75mm rains right across the heart of the Midwest whereas the GFS rainfalls are a bit more defuse with large gaps in the rainfall coverage.
This is a BIG change from the last few runs of the European model so obviously the question becomes – is this NEW solution valid or viable? The best way to answer this question is to take a look at the model ensembles which we do here. As you can see the European ensemble and the GFS ensemble are very similar in showing a significant area of 0.50-1.5″/ 12-38mm rains covering large portions of the central Plains and the Midwest. There is a particular reason why the weather models have turned significantly wetter in the six-ten day which I will go into in the new edition of the WEATHER INSIDER later.
11-15 DAY = The new 11 to 15 day on the extended European is somewhat drier especially over the Midwest – especially when you compare to the GFS 11 to 15 day model.
CPC FORECAST MAPS–6-10 DAY
In the official CPC 6 to 10 day forecast ... it has changed somewhat since yesterday. There is a large area of below normal rainfall over the eastern Dakotas and most of the Midwest with a secondary below normal rainfall along the Gulf coast. In between is a stripe of “near normal” rainfall running from Virginia through Kentucky and Tennessee into Missouri and Arkansas. Further to the west … most of Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and western and northern Texas are in the above normal rainfall with much above normal rainfall expected across all of the Rockies, the Great Basin … and into the interior portions of the West Coast. With respect to temperatures most of the central and upper Plains as well as the WCB areas are in the “near Normal”. There are two areas of below normal temperatures — one is located over the Northeast U.S. extending from Indiana and eastern Kentucky into New England and the second area covers most of California and Southwestern states. This leaves most of the lower Plains, the Delta and the
ECB regions are in the near normal temperature range.
CPC FORECAST–MAPS–8-14 DAY
PRECIP – again most of the Midwest is in the below normal rainfall area but the above normal rainfall area covers all of the Pacific Northwest… the Great Basin … all of the Rockies and into most of the Plains and Nebraska, Texas and into Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi. With respect to TEMPS — all the Midwest as well as New England and the Middle Atlantic region is still in the below normal temperature area as is the entire West Coast from Washington State into California and Arizona. Most of the WCB is in the near normal temperature range with slightly above normal temperatures over Minnesota and the Dakotas.
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