Traders/ farmers etc
Be advised that all the short range weather models have completed their run which takes us to either Friday 7:00 PM or Saturday 7:00 PM depending on the model. All three of the primary short range models show no significant rain over any portion of Iowa through Friday 7:00 PM and only light rain under 1.25″/ 32 mm over the far northern counties near the Minnesota border by Saturday 7:00 PM. There IS significant rains of 1-4″/ 25-100mm across all of the southern third of Minnesota, the southern half of Wisconsin and Michigan. Light rains extend into far northern Illinois with most of central and southern Illinois being completely dry and that is also the case for Indiana.
SEE IMAGE 1
However the new Wed midday 12Z operational regular GFS models has come out and it has turned dramatically wetter over the next 5 days over the northeast third of Iowa. I suppose this is is predictable for the operational GFS to do this since the model is known for its massive inconsistency. The last few runs of the GFS model have shown the entire northern third of Iowa to be essentially dry for the next five days.
Making this flip flop even more laughable or absurd is that the GFS model over the next 24 hours drops 1-2″/ 25-50mm rain into northeastern Iowa by 7:00 AM Thursday morning. As I showed above, none of the short range models show anything like this so the entire operational GFS model is showing a solution which has no support from any of the data either for Thursday morning or out to Sunday morning.
SOOOOOO while this shift in the GFS model may cause a market reaction it should be kept in mind that we have to see what the GFS ensemble, the Canadian and the European models are showing later on. Standby for another bump this afternoon…
BREAKING 12Z CANADIAN THRU 144 HRS/ DAY 6 … NO RAIN in ne third of IA over 0.75″/ 20mm
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