The talk in the trade is that we might see the USDA increase its corn and bean stocks-in-all-positions a little bit from the last 2017/2018 ending stocks figures………………………………………….In the past the September stocks report has allowed for the USDA to “reassess, redefine, make up for and readjust” mistakes/miscalculations from previous reports……………………………………………….There can always be a surprise and the impact of the surprise might be subdued because of being in the midst of harvest and we are, as reported by the USDA bringing in a lot of corn and beans this Fall.
Friday’s reports; the Small Grains Summary and Stocks-in-all-Positions, historically, are more important to wheat and oats than corn and beans………………………………………………………..Trade talk is that we might see an increase in soft white wheat stocks as the late harvest reports in the Pacific Northwest were better than expected…………………………we’ve neither seen nor heard any major fluctuations in the hard red or soft red figures…………………………………………………………..What pencils out is that the trade might not be surprised if the numbers suggest a slightly higher carry-over figure in the October Supply/Demand estimates set to be released on October 11……………………………………………………. Winter Wheat seeding is underway and the recent rains in the Plains have been very welcome………………………This morning’s radar images and the NWS 6 to 10 day forecast promise better than average chances of rain in the areas which have been designated as short topsoil moisture in the last USDA crop progress report……………………………………………………..
The drama in Washington DC may have market implications. Being at the end of the month and quarter may inspire fear and trepidation, too ……………………………………………I have no idea about what might happen in DC this next two days and, I sense ,that I am not alone with this assessment………………………………………This attitude might make it very volatile the next few days………………………………………….
Steve Bruce
Walsh Trading
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