9/16/24
The Cattle and Grain Markets were all lower today, but the Hogs had a nice gain. The Cattle Markets were lower today, but not much lower. December’24 Live Cattle were 15 cents lower today and settled at 178.35. Today’s high was 179.37 ½ and the 1-month high is 179.50. Today’s low was 177.75 and the 1-month low is 173.17 ½. The 52-week low is 172.25. Since 8/16 December’24 Live Cattle are 35 cents higher. The Feeders were fractionally lower as well. October’24 Feeder Cattle were 12 ½ cents lower today and settled at 239. Today’s high was 241.12 ½ and the 1-month high is 241.37 ½. Today’s low was 238.52 ½ and the 1-month and 52-week low is 229.35. Since 8/16 October’24 Feeder Cattle are 3.27 ½ higher or almost 1 ½%. The Hogs had a nice day. October’24 Lean Hogs were 1.47 ½ higher today and settled at 79.92 ½. Today’s high was 80.67 ½ and the 1-month high is 83.37 ½. Today’s low was 78.60 and the 1-month low is 74.75. Since 8/16 October’24 Lean Hogs are 4.90 higher or 6 ½%. The Cattle Markets tried to rally again, but it was not in the cards today. The December’24 Fats settled more than a dollar off the highs today, and the October’24 Feeders closed more than 2 bucks below the highs. The Cattle Markets were higher this morning, but lack of interest, again sent the Markets lower for the day. The Cattle on Feed Report is this Friday, the 20th, and I am hearing some say expectations are for 101% Cattle on Feed compared to last year, with Marketings being lower and Placements 1% higher. If the Feedlots are still full and weights continue to rise, then there will not be any production problems in the near future. China’s economy is slowing and that’s bad for all commodities, as China is the biggest consumer of commodities. Banks have also cut China’s GDP forecast. China’s sow herd also shrunk about 5 ½% from this time last year. The Fed is expected to lower rates this week, and I hope they don’t screw it up. Most of the commodity Markets have broken well off their inflationary highs, except for the Cattle Markets. The Cattle Markets are lower, but nowhere near as much as the Grain Markets. I still feel there is more room for the Cattle to break.
The Grains were all in the red, with the Wheat leading the way lower. The Beans traded below $10.00 today. November’24 Soybeans were 1 ¾ cents lower today and settled at 1004 ½. Today’s high was 1012 and the 1-month high is 1031 ¼. Today’s low was 999 and the 1-month low is 957 ¼. The current 52-week low is 955. Since 8/16 November’24 Soybeans are 47 ½ cents lower or almost 5%. The Corn had a narrow trading range and closed lower as well. December’24 Corn was 2 ½ cents lower today and settled at 410 ¾. Today’s high was 410 ¾ and the 1-month high is 416. Today’s low was 408 ½ and the 1-month and 52-week low is 385. Since 8/16 December’24 Corn is 18 ¼ cents higher or more than 4 ½%. The Wheat Market was hit the hardest today. December’24 Wheat was 16 ¾ cents lower today and settled at 578 ½. Today’s high was 596 and 1-month high is 598 ¾. Today’s low was 574 ¼ and the 1-month and 52-week low is 520 ¾. Since 8/16 December’24 Wheat is 26 cents higher or almost 5%. The Beans tried to rally again today for some reason, but some took advantage of the higher prices, and sold into strength. November’24 Soybeans closed 7 ½ cents off the highs today. In my opinion, a simple way to take advantage of any higher Soybean prices is to continue to sell calls and buy puts, early and often. China is stockpiling Soybeans, ahead of our election, just in case there was a trade war, or if they intend on causing another conflict, but they will buy as little as possible from the US Farmer. The weather forecasts here look good, and harvest pressure could arrive at any moment. The monsoon rains should arrive in Brazil soon, and Argentina intends to plant 7% more Soybeans this year. The Corn Market has looked good, compared to the Beans and Wheat, and I feel it has a good chance to climb higher. December’24 Corn has settled above 401 everyday this month and has been range bound. If the December’24 Corn can get through 416, (the high on 9/6) it could test the 421 ¾ level, when it traded there on July 26th. The Wheat Market tanked today and settled 17 ½ cents off the highs and just 1 ¼ from the low. I said on 9/5 that I did not think we would see 6-dollar Wheat yet, but it did get close. The last time December’24 Wheat traded $6.00 or higher was on July 11th, when it traded 603 ½. I think the Corn Market has the best upside potential, and I feel the Soybean will be heading lower. The ending stocks are too large and could possibly get larger, and harvest will be in full swing soon. Personally, I wouldn’t want to be long Beans, if the music stops next month (or before). If you have questions for me, just send me an email. BALLEN@WALSHTRADING.COM
-Bill
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