Jon Wiedeman 10/14/2025
If you would like to receive more information on the commodity markets or would like to open an account, please click the link Sign Up Now
Daily ZSX5:
November soybeans closed the day lower with a volatile trading day from the outside markets which traded both sharply lower and higher during the day session. With November having a double top at 1030 I think that is an important number for resistance in the bean market. Other spots I am looking at is yesterday’s high at 1013 followed by 1018 ½ which is the 21-day moving average then 1024 ¾ which is Fridays high. For support on the daily charts, we have 993 ¾ then followed by 981 ¼. (see chart below).
Weekly ZSX5:
Looking at the weekly charts for November beans we have resistance at last week’s high of 1030 followed by last month’s high of 1053. For support I am using 993 ¾ followed by 981 ¼. (see chart below).
Fundamentals:
With the government shutdown we are unable to get any fresh data for the grain markets but there are definitely some guesstimates to where harvest progress is. According to a Reuters poll of ten analysts’ yesterday’s soybean harvest progress is 58% completed and crop ratings unchanged at 61% in the good to excellent category. The subject of conversation still in soybeans is the lack of purchases made by China and with their current record bean stocks in their ports it doesn’t look promising to see them return to our markets anytime soon. CONAB also estimated this morning for a record Brazil bean crop at 177.64 million tonnes although the average trade was looking for 179. We will continue to watch any updated headlines regarding trade deals and meetings with the US and China.
Trade Ideas:
Long the 1050-1100 call spread in November beans for 10 cents. Cover the short 11 calls for ½ cent or better.
Daily ZCZ5:
December corn closed the day higher led by the wheat market. December corn hit a sixth week low trading down to 409 ¼. For support in December corn on the daily charts I am using 403 ½ followed by the psychological $4 level. As far as resistance goes on the daily charts, we have 410 ½ which was yesterday’s high then 415 which is the 50day moving average followed by 524 ½. (see chart below).
Weekly ZCZ5:
With December corn making 6-week lows, looking at the weekly charts for December corn we have resistance at 423 which is the 21-period moving average on the weekly’s followed 431 ¼ then the 50-period moving average at 438 ¾. For support I am using 403 ½ followed by 401 ¼. (see chart below).
Fundamentals:
With the entire grain complex not getting updated information with the government shut down we have to improvise and go off what analysist are guessing which is harvest around 44% complete and corn ratings down 1% to 64% in the good to excellent category. CONAB is estimating the 25/26 Brazil corn crop at 138.6 compared to the estimate of 141.3 million tonnes. Weather in the 6-10 forecast looks to see above precipitation for most of the Midwest which could slow harvest progress. We will be monitoring basis levels as well as the Mississippi water levels with reports now showing issues of lower water levels.
Trade Ideas:
Long the December 410-450 call spread for 8½ cents. Place an order to buy back the short 450 calls for ½ cent.
Daily ZWZ5:
December wheat led the grain complex to the upside during today’s trading session after making new contract lows of 492 ¼ then trading up to 501 ¾ which was yesterday high. For support I am using todays lows of 492 ¼. As far as resistance goes for December wheat on the daily charts, we have a double top at 501 ¾ followed by last Fridays high of 509 ½. (see chart below).
Weekly ZWZ5:
Looking at the weekly charts for December wheat we have support at 492 ¼. For resistance we have last week’s high of 518 ¼ then the 14-period moving average of 527 ¼. (see chart below).
Fundamentals:
Global supplies continue to be burdensome which is putting wheat towards 5-year lows in the market. Winter wheat planting is estimated up to 66% completed that compares to 50% last week. Open interest continues to increase which is a sign of funds adding to their short position in wheat.
Trade Ideas:
Long the 530 – 570 Dec call spread for 9 cents. Place an order to cover the short 570 calls for ½ cent.
If you would like to receive more information on the commodity markets or would like to open an account, please click the link Sign Up Now
Jon Wiedeman
Pure Hedge Division
Direct: 1 312 957 8108
WALSH TRADING INC.
311 S. Wacker Suite 540
Chicago, Illinois 60606
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.