Walsh Daily Bullet Points 11/4

GRAINS

Corn down 1½ to 2 overnight after settling 4.41½, another new low, with bears now targeting the June low of $4.25¾
StoneX raised its US corn yield estimate to 183.1 bushels against USDA’s 181.2
Open interest rose 8,155 Tuesday, so shorts are still coming in
Wheat unchanged to down ¼ in Chicago, with Dec Chicago testing the late-June low
The Kremlin confirmed three-way talks with Ukraine and the US in Abu Dhabi Nov 10-11, Putin aide Vladimir Medinsky leading for Russia
Hopes for a breakthrough are low, but the talks keep draining war premium out of wheat and the corn tied to Black Sea
Heavy rain and isolated severe storms for the Mississippi Valley, tracking toward the Ohio Valley and Southeast
Open interest: Chicago wheat +2,818

Beans hit an 11-week low, down 9 to 10¾ overnight after settling 12.13½, with November testing $12 overnight
The driver is weather, with rains forecast to expand into central Brazil, taking away the dryness story that had been supporting beans
StoneX also raised its bean yield to 55 bushels against USDA’s record 53.1
Meal down 1.70 to 1.80 overnight, soyoil down 63 to 77 points
Crush was about flat Tuesday near $2.03, with oil now 51.19% of product value against meal’s 48.81%, the widest that gap has been
Brazil planting is running fast precisely because the west and north have been dry
Southern Brazil has the opposite problem, with frequent heavy rain into Saturday stalling wheat harvest in Rio Grande do Sul and Parana
Open interest: beans +5,486, meal −5,433, soyoil +2,655
Dalian all lower, and Malaysian palm fell to about MYR 4,500, its lowest in over a month, with September stocks at a record high
Canola settled 782.20, down 6.20

Live cattle fell to a six-week low, down 1.52 to 218.18, with January feeders down 4.35 to 328.32, a four-week low
Cash cattle averaged $223.65 last week, down $3.41 from $227.06, with no cash trade reported yet this week
Hogs made another contract low early then finished up 45 cents at 58.62 on short covering
Pork cutout rose $2.24 to $74.52, and futures have held above Tuesday’s low for two sessions
Wednesday’s CME hog index is down 76 cents at $64.99

Sugar down 71 to 18.35, continuing to slide with crude, since cheap oil pushes Brazilian mills from ethanol back into sugar
Cocoa down 18 to 5,515, still pressured by ICE stocks near a two-and-a-half-year high
Coffee settled 283.95, down 8.15, giving back Monday’s bounce
Cotton 76.99, down 67, still below the 78-cent support it broke last week

Democrats took control of Congress, flipping Senate seats in Michigan, Texas, Iowa, Ohio, South Carolina and North Carolina, plus Kansas for the first time since 1932
At least 225 House seats and a 54-44 Senate edge with races still outstanding
Farm-state races broke Democratic on anger over beef imports, diesel costs and input prices, with the result read as a rebuke over the Iran war and fuel prices
The farm bill is now likely to slip to the next Congress rather than get done in a lame duck
Stock futures reversed higher this morning after an initial drop on the blue wave
Tuesday the Dow fell 197.26 while the S&P gained 27.52 and Nasdaq 100 rose 190.44 on chips
Crude down 1% at $95.15, with Trump saying he doesn’t plan to resume intensified attacks on Iran
Four oil tankers caught fire after hitting mines in the Strait of Hormuz, per Iran’s Revolutionary Guard
Standard Bank’s Steve Barrow: asset prices will be far more sensitive to Iranian oil facilities being hit than to election seat counts
Gold 3,944.50, down 12.40, with silver breaking below $50 to 49.605, down 1.283, and platinum down 36.80
10-year 4.938%, down 3.6 basis points this morning after yields rose Tuesday on the midterms, JOLTS and refunding

Dec corn 4.41½ (−6¾) · Dec Chicago wheat 5.98¾ (−7¾)
Jan beans 12.13½ (−3¼) · Dec meal 317.60 (−2.00) · Dec soyoil 65.26 (+0.18)
Dec live cattle 218.18 (−1.52) · Jan feeders 328.32 (−4.35) · Dec hogs 58.62 (+0.45)
Mar cocoa 5,515 (−18) · Mar sugar 18.35 (−0.71) · Dec cotton 76.99 (−0.67)
Crush (Dec): 214¾—oil 51.19%, meal 48.81%