There were 2 areas of significant rain in he last 24 hrs. one area was over northern Minnesota and the eastern half of North Dakota (and some of this was snow). Rainfall amounts range from 0.25 -1.0″/ 6-25mm and the coverage was 60 to 70%. The second area of moderate rain fell over eastern Wyoming and the western half of Nebraska as well as far southwestern South Dakota. Rainfall amounts here were a little heavier range from 0.25 -1.5″ 6-38mm and again the coverage was 60-70%.
Usually in the morning report we talk about the 1-5 DAY… 6-10 DAY…. 111-5 DAY but in this case to do so would be a little deceptive because so much rain is going to fall over the next 7 days. So today we will be using 7 day rainfall maps.
The overall forecast has not changed. All the weather models are still showing tremendous amounts of rain coming into large portions of the Midwest and the upper Delta over the next seven days. This amount of rain is going to cause flooding especially with the ground is already saturated from recent rains across Arkansas ..southern Missouri … western Tennessee … northern third os Mississippi and southern Kentucky. The southern portions of Illinois may also see significant flooding as well.
This image shows the next 7 days with the GFS map on the left and the European model 7 day rainfall forecast on the right. As you can see both models are showing very similar rainfall amounts. The GFS model produces a band of 6-10″/150- 250mm rains cutting across Arkansas into southeastern Missouri and far southern Illinois. It has 4-5″ 100-125mm rain into central Illinois … southern Indiana and into northern Louisiana… 1-3″/ 25-75mm are common across all of the remaining portions of the Midwest and into large portions of Kansas and Nebraska. The European model is a little more conservative with the rain but it still shows 6-8″/150-200mm rains over much of Arkansas .. southeastern Missouri …into far southwest Illinois. The European model has less rain over western Iowa …Nebraska and Kansas.
This image shows the rainfall anomaly– as if you need to know that this amount of rain is excessive.
In week 2 the extended GFS ensemble continues to show a very wet pattern across the heart of the Midwest. Obviously this amount of matter is not nearly as heavy as what we will see over the next seven days but they key point is that this moderate rain doesn’t allow for ANY DRying. The European ensembles not as wet but it is still fairly wet for most of the Midwest.
In addition the new week 3 and week 4 CFS Rainfall and temperature forecast maps have come out and the CFS has flip flopped again. It now shows a wet and cold week 3 and 4 for the second half of MAY. This is the 4th change in 4 days from the CFS model and it shows that this model having a great deal of difficulty with this pattern.
For those interested, Sean Lusk, Director of Walsh Commercial Hedging Services, hosts a FREE Grain Outlook Webinar every Thursday at 3:00PM CST. Sean will hold his next webinar on Thursday, April 27th. REGISTER NOW.
If you missed last week’s webinar, you may VIEW A RECORDING.