December Live Cattle
The Dec Live cattle market opened higher today at 115.200 and pressed up to 116.325 just shy of previously mentioned contention level of 116.500. Prices gets rejected rather harshly and fall back through the opening to finish modestly higher for the day at 114.925. It is my opinion that that we have just seen the first leg up of a 5 wave sequence of an impulsive fifth wave advance. If this is the case then the pullback would be a second wave non-impulsive decline which would most likely retrace .618 from the high. This in turn would target the support zone at 114.500-114.200. This area represents the 100 period MA in both hourly and daily time frames. If the market can stabilize and gain its footing it will be looking to fortify the 115.300 level. A hold above looks to challenge today’s high and thus commencing a sub-set third wave advance which would ultimately target +/-120. On the other side of he coin we do observe a doji formation in the daily candle which could be foreshadow a sizable decline. In the event that the lower end of the support zone at 114.200 level gives way the market will test the speed-line throw back at +/-113.850. A hold below here will not be healthy and the picture quickly turns negative. This will leave the door open for a rug pull follow through targeting +/- 112.200. One must always stay nimble and open-minded when it comes to analyzing market action. I do believe that the odds favor a mild easing followed by an upward thrust however when the landscape changes it is imperative that one is prepared for an alternate scenario to unfold.