TUESDAY MIDDAY RADAR – The Tuesday AM radar shows heavy rains / storms over far se MS, all of central & south AL, most of GA, western SC, much of central north NC and VA. There was a band of moderate rain over central MO into central ILL… and scattered showers over 30-40% of north WI, south MN, se KS into north OK, into TX Panhandle.
RAINFALL LAST 48 HRS — ENDING 0700 cdt 23 MAY – In the last 24 hours there has been a lot of rain across the Deep South from se portions of TX to all of LA, most of central & south MS, all of AL, most of central & north VA, GA, all of SC, NC into much of VA. Rainfall amounts in these areas have ranged from 0.5-2.5″ /12-60mm. In addition over most of the Plains and WCB there was a lot of widely scattered light to moderate rain. Only IND, OH, KY, into east MO & north ARK were completely dry in the last 24 hours. Over west & north TX, most of OK, KS, COL, NEB, eastern WY, ND, SD all saw rainfall amounts between 0.15–0.75″ 3-20mm with 50 to 60% coverage. Similar rainfall amounts fell over most of the WCB but there was a stripe of heavy rains 0.5- 1.5″ 12-38mm over ne KS, central & north MO & sw ILL.
MON MAX TEMPS – 60s and 70s over all of the Midwest, Plains and Delta.
1-5 DAY = There is not a lot to change on the morning models for the next 5 days. The heaviest rains are going to fall over the Deep South from south MS into VA & MD with rainfall amounts of 1-3″/ 25-75mm likely in addition to what they have already seen with coverage of 70 to 80%. Additional rains of 0.75-2.0″/20-75mm will fall over 60 to 70% of OH, IND, central & east KY & TN, central & north ILL, MI, into central & east MO. The main difference is that the morning GFS model has a new band of 1.0-2.5″/25-60mm rains covering north KS … central & southern NEB … into much of IA which shows up in day 4-5. The European has most of IA, NEB, KS dry in for the next 5 days. Since most of the ensemble models supports the European solution I will keep the WCB as well as the central upper Plains and most of the lower Plains dry over the next five days.
6-10 DAY = There are big differences in the models in the 6-10 day. The Tuesday AM European model shows a large area of heavy rains from 2 -5″/ 50-125mm affecting all of central and eastern TX, the southern half of ARK, north LA, all of MS, AL & TN into nw GA… with somewhat lighter rains over the Carolinas. Most of the Midwest as well as the central & upper Plains appears to be dry on the European model. There are few areas of light rains 0.25-0.75/6-20mm with 30 to 40% coverage over portions of ILL, IND, NEB and KS. The GFS model is vastly different. To begin with it has an area of 2-8″/ 50-200mm rains centered over far east OK, the entire state of TN, but on the GFS model the rains over TX, LA, the rest of AL, MS, GA are much, much lighter. In addition, the GFS model have more significant rains 0.75- 2.5 / 20-60mm covering 60 to 70% of OH, KY, IND, MI, IND, ILL, southern WI and most of IA. As you can see from these images Tuesday morning GFS & European models are diametrically opposed to each other. They offer vastly different solutions so that it is not possible to come up with compromise in this situation.
Fortunately the ensemble data here is helping a lot. Both the GFS and European ensembles are in good agreement and show the same general idea — significant rain of 0.75- 2.5″/20-60mm covering most of central & eastern TX, all of LA, ARK, TN, MS, AL, north GA, KY, WVA, OH into PA with lighter rain amounts 0.25- 0.75″ /6-20mm over east ILL, IND, MI, OK & KS. The European ensemble model keeps most of the central and upper Plains dry. The GFS model is similar but it has a bit more rain over the WCB, KS, OK & southern MO. THEREFORE WE IGNORE THE 6-10DAY GFS MODEL WITH TOO MUCH RAIN OVER THE MIDWEST.
11-15 DAY = There is nothing to change the models in the 11 to 15 day. The GFS, Canadian & European models all agree that the wet active pattern is going to continue as they all show widespread moderate to significant rains covering 80% of the entire Midwest as well as TN, KY, MO, ARK and much of the eastern half of the central/ lower Plains. The European ensemble continues to insist that the heaviest rains will fall over east KS & west MO and that is a possibility though not a certainty at this time.
JUNE 2017
It needs to be pointed out that the European weekly models came out last night and it continues to show an extremely wet June 2017 developing. This is very similar to last few runs of the CFS model which also shows a very wet JUNE in almost all areas of the Plains and the Midwest. The European weekly models show large areas of the Plains and the Midwest seeing Above and Much Above normal rainfall. I am reluctant to use the terms like 1993 all over again but there is some similarities to that late spring and early summer weather pattern to the current one.