Tuesday AM US Grain Weather Update

walshtradingWeather

TUESDAY AM RADAR

The Tuesday morning radar shows a couple weak storms over southeastern Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin and some scattered light rain showers along the border of North and South Dakota.  There was a third group over the southern portions of Louisiana and southwest Mississippi into central Alabama with the coverage of 40%.

MONDAY MAX TEMPS

Most of the Midwest saw temperatures that were ideal for late July.  70s over MN, eastern IA, WI, north ILL, north IND, MI, north OH…  80s over southern OH, southern IND, central ILL, western IA, eastern NEB, northern MO, eastern ND/ SD… Low 90s over central NEB, eastern KS, southern MO, ARK, eastern OK / TX, MS, AL, GA, TN, KY… 95-100 over western TX, western OK, eastern COL/ WY/ MT, far western ND/ western SD/ western NEB and most of KS.

24 HR RAINFALL ENDING 0700 25 JULY  LINK #1  []  LINK#2

Most areas of the Plains  …the Midwest and the Delta regions were dry over last 24 hours but there were some areas of moderate rain.  The first area featured rainfall amounts of 0.25-1.0″/ 6-25mm with 50% coverage over central and northern South Dakota into southwestern Minnesota.  There were a few small areas in northeast corner of South Dakota and southeastern Minnesota that had rainfall amounts of 2.0″/ 50mm.  The other area was found across the Deep South with scattered moderate rains over 40% of western and central Texas, 50% of Louisiana and 50% across southern Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia.  Most of these rains fell only 0.25- 1.5″/ 6-38mm but there was a cluster of heavy rain up to 6″/ 150mm over southwestern Mississippi State.
SUMMARY
1-5 DAY – All the overnight weather models have increased the rains significantly over the next 3 days with regard to this next cold front coming south from Canada.  The early morning GFS model was particularly impressive with rainfall amounts showing 0.75- 3.0″/20-75mm rains over 75% of Iowa …eastern Nebraska and the southern half of Minnesota into central and southern Illinois  …then into central Indiana and Ohio.  The European model also increases rainfall coverage over the WCB but not to the same degree.  However the European ensemble is much wetter than the operational run which gives us reason to believe that the wetter GFS solution in this case is going to be correct.  Therefore given the risk that the GFS model will be correct with significant rains for the WCB the trade is likely to react to this if it hasn’t already.
6-10 DAY – most models keep most of the Plains and the Midwest dry during this timeframe.  And temperatures are either normal or below normal especially east of Mississippi River.  The operational GFS this morning has significant rains pushing into western Texas / the Texas panhandle and into portions of western Oklahoma July 31 and August 1 but the European model has these rains located further to the southwest and southern Texas.
11-15 DAY – The models are somewhat wetter in the 11 to 15 day when compared to what they were showing on Monday morning and Monday afternoon.  The GFS ensemble has a widespread area of 0.5-1.5″/ 12-38mm covering all the Midwest and most of the Deep South… with the heaviest rains located over the Southern states.  The European is not as wet but it is wetter from its previous run so maybe a trend developing here.  What happens is that the weather models begin to weaken the deep trough over the eastern third of the country. This  allows the overall pattern to become more zonal — west to east — which is typical for early August.  This allows for a return of moderate amounts of moisture to portions of the Midwest and the Deep South.

 

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