This statement is being sent out because of the midday /12z Operational (“regular” GFS) and GFS ensemble data.
The operational GFS model continues to show significant rains over the next five days for much of the ECB area. Over WI, central and northern ILL, IND and OH rainfall amounts are generally 1-3″/ 25-75mm with locally higher amounts and 75% coverage. This will cause flooding in many areas given how wet the ECB has been.
The main issue continues to be that the GFS model as well as the GFS ensemble is finally expanding the heat dome from the West Coast and Rockies into the central Plains during next weekend July 16 -17. The deep trough over the eastern US finally pulls out and the heat dome comes east.
The operational GFS has the heat dome PARKED over the heart of the Midwest/ ECB which expands into the Ohio Valley late in week two. In other words the operational GFS model keeps it hot across the entire Midwest and the deep South for the entire week 2 timeframe July 18-25.
That being said the operational GFS develops a large Canadian HIGH which comes out of southern Canada and tries to drive the cold front across MN, WI, MI and into northern OH on July 20. Along this front there will be showers and thunderstorms and obviously north of the front much cooler temperatures. Right now because of the way the GFS model handles the power and shape of the dome, the GFS model keeps this front north of the Midwest — over MN, WI and the Great Lakes. It is possible however that if the model has the dome somewhat weaker, this front could come further south which would prevent the heat from getting into the ECB.
The GFS ensemble has completed its run and it agrees with the operational GFS that the heat dome coming east into the central Plains and WCB by this weekend and early next week.
After day 10 this model no longer shows a heat dome centered over MO, IA and west central ILL like the operational GFS does. Instead we see a large and fairly strong heat ridge extending from the central Rockies to the Ohio Valley in the week 2 timeframe. Not surprisingly most of the Plains AND the Midwest are quite dry in the 6-10 DAY & 11 to 15 day.
For those interested in grains, Sean Lusk, Director, Walsh Commercial Hedging Services hosts a FREE Grain Outlook webinar each Thursday at 3PM CST. He will hold his next webinar on Thursday, July 13th. REGISTER NOW.