Rain over central ND with 60% coverage and over western SD and eastern SD, 40% coverage… storms over western IA and heavy storms over northern third of ARK and moderate storms / rain over far sw OK into southern TX Panhandle into central TX.
RAINFALL LAST 24 HRS ending 0700 cdt 15 AUGUST
0.50-4.0″/ 12-100mm over 50-60% of western half SD into far north central and ne NEB… and similar rainfall amounts over north half of ARK (Conway to near Ft Smith) … 0.50 to 3.0″/ 12-75mm over western TX Panhandle into abse of TX Panhandle (Amarillo to Plainview) … 0.25 to 1.5″/6-38mm over 60% of northern MN, 60% of TN, southeast KY and WVA and 40-50% of AL, GA, SC, NC.
MAX TEMPS MONDAY
70s over eastern MT, ND, SD, MN, northern and eastern IA, WI, MI… 80s over OH, IND, ILL, KY, TN, ARK, MO, sw IA, NEB, KS, OK into TX Panhandle and over eastern WY … 90s over eastern COL, rest of TX, LA, MS, AL, GA.
MODELS UNCHANGED OVER 1-5 DAY IN IA/ WCB … 6-10 DAY ENSEMBLES STILL FAIRLY WET OVER WCB … 11-15 DAY UNCERTAIN
1-5 DAY = The regular GFS drops 1-4″/25-100mm over west IA, far eastern NEB with 70% coverage and 1-3″/ 25-75mm over rest of IA, southern MN into central NEB, eastern third of SD, eastern third of KS … AND over 75% of OK, the TX Panhandle into ARK… the ECB sees 50% coverage 0.50-1.5″/12-38mm. EURO has similar rainfall pattern BUT somewhat lighter amounts of 1-3″/ 25-75mm over 75%+ MN, eastern half of SD / NEB, KS, western IA into northwest 25% of MO… 1-2″ with 50% coverage eastern IA and under 0.75″/20mm for rest of MO, all of ILL, IND, OH, KY.
GFS /EURO ensembles in EXCELLENT agreement showing 1-3″/ 25-75mm with 75% coverage all of MN, east half of SD, east half NEB, western IA, eastern KS… 1-2″/ 25-50mm 60% coverage eastern IA, eastern OK, ARK, western MO… MUCH less over ILL, IND, OH, KY.
6-10 DAY = GFS and EURO very different from yesterday — not as wet over WCB and wetter over KS … SO lets ignore the operational GFS/EURO and go with the ensembles which keeps the WCB wet on GFS, EURO AND ensembles 70% coverage 0.50 -1.75″/12-38mm IA, ILL, southern MN… ECB mostly dry.
11-15 DAY = EURO turned much drier all areas of Plains, WCB, ECB, Delta while GFS still has WCB wet… Canadian a compromise between GFS and EURO… Euro ensemble has a much bigger RIDGE in Jet stream over southwest state into central Rockies and Plains which turns the pattern drier. GFS does not have this.