RADAR LINK – The late Tuesday afternoon radar shows not a lot of activity over all the Plains and the Midwest. There are some moderate rain showers over northeast MN … and scattered very light activity over 20 to 30% of eastern KS, northern MO, northwest ILL and eastern WI. Somewhat more concentrated showers and storms can be found over 50% of northeast ARK into western and central TN and across northern LA into central MS and AL. The only rainfall which is occurring over any portion of the Plains on this Tuesday afternoon can be found over far southern TX.
1-5 DAY – There is not a lot of model agreement on this Tuesday afternoon between the GFS and the European models. In fact they probably disagree at all three time intervals — the 1-5 DAY … 6-10 DAY … 11-15 DAY. In the 1-5 DAY the GFS Model is much wetter than the European model over eastern KS, MS, central and southern ILL, much of IA. As you can see the GFS model for the next 5 days (LEFT) in the area outlined in RED shows 60% coverage of 1-3″ /25-75mm rains while the European model (RIGHT) shows almost no rain whatsoever. In addition, the European model has more rain over central and eastern TX as well as Louisiana Delta than the GFS model.
6-10 DAY – Both the operational or regular GFS and the European model show a cluster of heavy rain and what appears to be strong thunderstorms in the 6-10 DAY which hammers much of KS, OK, western MO and southern NEB with rainfall amounts between 2-6″/50-150mm. To the east of this cluster of storms … all the Midwest is essentially dry on both models for the entire 6-10 DAY.
If we take a look at the 6-10 ensembles we will see that the GFS model clearly supports the operational or regular GFS with the cluster of heavy rains over northeastern OK, southern MO, much of KS, southern NEB and far southwest IA. This rain is much weaker however on the European ensemble which implies that even though the regular European model has a big cluster of heavy thunderstorms over the central Plains in the 6-10 day … many of the European ensemble members do not show such a massive heavy rainstorm.
SUMMARY: while many of the models show a major thunderstorm cluster with heavy rains up to 6″/150mm over portions of NEB, KS, OK, southern MO it is way too early to call this a probable or likely event. In addition model performance data shows the GFS is substantially under performing the European model and has been for the past 10 days. If the GFS model turns out to be wrong and the European model ensemble is correct … then the 6-10 day will end up NOT having a significant or major rain event over the central Plains then much of the Midwest over a 5 day interval for the 1st time in weeks.
11-15 DAY – The fact that both models continue to weaken the rain in the 11 to 15 day implies that we are moving into a somewhat drier cycle. Given the overall jet stream pattern I believe that is correct and I do think the possibility exists for a drier close to normal rainfall pattern for the second half of June 2017.
CPC FORECAST MAPS — 6-10 DAY
In the official CPC 6 to 10 day forecast shows Below Normal Precip covers all of WCB into the Dakotas and into the Pacific Northwest. Above normal rainfall can be found over eastern Colorado and New Mexico as well as Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and the northern half of Texas into the Delta region across the southeastern states up into Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania. In between these areas the lower half of the WCB and much of the ECB areas are in the near normal rainfall area. TEMPS – the entire country east of the Rockies isn’t below normal temperature area and there’s a large area of much below normal temperatures implied across the interior portions of the northeast as well as the Tennessee Valley and the entire Midwest. From the western Dakotas to the Rockies all the way out to the West Coast temperatures will be above normal with much above normal over Oregon, Nevada and California.
CPC FORECAST MAPS — 8-14 DAY
In the official CPC 6 to 10 day forecast is a much simpler map. To begin with all the country east the Mississippi River isn’t above normal rainfall as well as both southern half of the WCB and the central Plains of eastern Nebraska, all of Kansas, Oklahoma and the northern half of Texas. The northern half of the WCB is in the near normal rainfall area as is the Rockies. Below normal rainfall covers the Dakotas into Montana
and the Pacific Northwest. With respect to temperatures the entire Midwest, the deep south Mid Atlantic states are all in below or much below normal temperatures for mid JUNE. The eastern portions of Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas are also in below normal temperature area. There is a stripe of near normal temperatures across Texas, western Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska into South Dakota and Minnesota. And above normal temperatures covers the entire western third of the country with much above normal centered over Nevada and northern California as well as Oregon.