The May WTI (CLK25) trading session settled at 66.75 (-0.62) [-0.92%], a high of 68.49, a low of 66.44. Cash price is at 67.59 (+0.42), while open interest for CLK25 is 295,741. CLK25 settled below its 5 day (66.93) , below its 20 day (68.09), below its 50 day (70.72), below its 100 day (69.66), below its 200 day (70.60) and below its year-to date (70.77) moving averages. The COT report (Futures and Options Summary) as of 3/11/25 showed commercials with a net short position of -212,629 (a decrease in short positions by 2,801 from the previous week) and non-commercials who are net long +194,324 (a increase in long positions by 10,102 from the previous week)
June’25 Brent Crude contract settled at 70.12 (-0.48) [-0.68%]
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Today’s American Petroleum Institute Data showed U.S. crude oil inventories had a build of +4.593 million barrels (against a forecast of a +1.17mb). Distillates decreased by -1.708 million, gasoline fell by -1.708 million. The Cushing, Oklahoma Hub had a draw of -1.141 million barrels. API forecasts that the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve added 300,000 barrels.
President Trump and President Putin spoke for 90 minutes over the phone discussing the ceasefire proposed by the U.S., which Ukraine has already said it would accept. On Truth Social Trump said “My phone conversation today with President Putin of Russia was a very good and productive one. We agreed to an immediate Ceasefire on all Energy and Infrastructure, with an understanding that we will be working quickly to have a Complete Ceasefire and, ultimately, an END to this very horrible War between Russia and Ukraine.” This comes after the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces said a drone strike was carried out on the Moscow Oil Refinery on March 11th, the Moscow Oil Refinery is one of the largest refiners in Russia, processing up to 11 million metric tons of oil per year, covering 40 to 50 percent of Moscow’s gasoline and diesel supplies.
Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Novak told Russian state media TASS today that Russia’s oil production this year is forecasted to be slightly lower compared to 2024, Russia anticipates producing ~515 million tons of oil this year. Russian crude flows in the four weeks to March 9th increased by 300,000 barrels per day, which was the largest four week gain since January 2023, per Reuters.
Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu said he ordered airstrikes on the Gaza Strip this morning because of a lack of progress in talks to extend the ceasefire with Hamas, which had been in place since January, and the failure of Hamas to return the remaining 59 Israeli hostages. IDF officials said the renewed military campaign was “open-ended” and was expected to expand “Israel will, from now on, act against Hamas with increasing military strength” Netanyahu’s office said.
President Trump posted on his Truth Social account that “Every shot fired by the Houthis will be looked upon, from this point forward, as being a shot fired from the weapons and leadership of IRAN, and IRAN will be held responsible, and suffer the consequences, and those consequences will be dire!” Since 2023, the Houthis, who are primarily funded by Iran, have been disrupting international shipping in the Red Sea, carrying out more than 100 attacks on shipping vessels and rerouting oil tankers that would typically pass through the Suez Canal. A Houthi representative said the USS Harry S. Truman was attacked by the rebels. On Saturday the U.S. conducted two airstrikes on a port controlled by the group. Houthi leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi said attacks on American ships would continue until the USA stops its airstrikes on Yemen. The Pentagon said this initial wave of U.S. airstrikes have hit over 30 Houthi sites so far, inflicting dozens of casualties.
China tapped into their crude stockpiles in the first two months of 2025, the first time doing such in 18 months, as refiners processed more crude while imports decreased, Reuters said citing official data. For the January-February months Chinese refineries averaged about 30,000 barrels per day more than the total crude available. On Sunday China’s State Council announced plans to “vigorously boost consumption” in what it dubbed a “special action plan” to boost domestic consumption. China’s National Bureau of Statistics said China’s Industrial Production grew to 5.9% in the first two months of 2025 from a year ago, above economists 5.3% forecast, although Industrial Production declined from the 6.2% growth rate posted in December. President Trump said that a meeting with President Xi Jinping will happen in the “not too distant future.” China’s Shanghai 300 Index closed higher by +0.27%.
The Trans Niger Pipeline suffered an explosion the local Nigerian government said today, the pipeline transports roughly 450,000 barrels per day.
Last Friday’s Baker Hughes weekly rig count showed the number of U.S. oil rigs increased by +1, to a total of 487, year over year it is -23 rigs lower. Canada’s oil rigs declined by -31, to a total of 139.
The Dow, S&P and Nasdaq all closed lower. The Dollar Index again closed lower by -0.12%, settling at 103.25.
Price Thoughts – Talk about a mixed day, up over 1% early off the heels of the Gaza ceasefire ending, adding on to the Mid-East war premium that has been creeping back with the weekends Iran/Houthi threats and fresh Iranian sanctions. Like I predicted in last night’s Price Thoughts, the Putin Trump phone call immediately sank the oil markets, and it was confirmed that the two Presidents talked about energy related topics, with Putin agreeing to stop attacking energy infrastructure. As of this post there is a lack of clarity on taking sanctions off or putting sanctions off if demands are or aren’t met. API’s weekly forecast came in very bearish, and if tomorrow’s EIA report comes in as bearish or worse I expect we trade down into the low digits of the $66 handle or test into the $65.50 area tomorrow.
WTI Crude oil broke below its $67 short-term resistance / long-term support line again, while the same could not be said for Brent and its $70 level, which was able to settle inside the $70 handle. Again the headline trading is leading the market move, while the global supply/demand and weakening USD situation has set a ceiling and floor, in my opinion. I expect EIA data will determine whether we continue to trade in our short-term range of $65-$67 for the remainder of the week, or break a handle or two below-or-above $67 for WTI and $70 for Brent.
$65 has been a major support figure over the last year. To the upside there’s still resistance in the $67 handle, above that $70, above that $74.50. Longer term I think we are still leaning more into the $65-$75 range rather than the $70-$80 range for 2025 for WTI.
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Jim Rinaudo
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