The April WTI (CLJ25) trading session settled at 68.26 (-0.11) [-0.16%], a high of 68.56, a low of 66.77. Cash price is at 68.38 (-1.35), while open interest for CLJ25 is at 271,199. CLJ25 settled below its 5 day (68.96), below its 20 day (70.68), below its 50 day (71.82), below its 100 day (70.33), below its 200 day (71.29) and below its year-to date (72.29) moving averages. The COT report (Futures and Options Summary) as of 2/25/25 showed commercials with a net short position of -223,559 (a decrease in short positions by +15,515 from the previous week) and non-commercials who are net long +196,923 (a decrease in long positions by -21,878 from the previous week)
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Breaking: United States Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says “Trump may roll back Canada and Mexico tariffs Tomorrow” – 4:30 p.m. ET
President Trump implemented 25% tariffs on all Canadian and Mexican imports, including a 10% slap on Canadian energy products. Trump also reiterated that reciprocal tariffs would begin on April 2nd and that any countermeasure tariffs placed by Canada or Mexico would be met with reciprocal tariffs. “Please Explain to Governor Trudeau, of Canada, that when he puts on a Retaliatory Tariff on the U.S., our Reciprocal Tariff will immediately increase by a like amount!” President Trump posted on his Truth Social platform. In turn Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau announced his country would put a 25% levy on U.S. goods, affecting $30 billion worth of goods immediately and extending it to $125 billion worth in 21 days. As for Mexico, Mexico’s President Sheinbaum said she would announce countermeasures this Sunday, previously Sheinbaum said Mexico would consider “tariff and non-tariff measures in defense of Mexico’s interests” Per Bloomberg, the U.S. imports roughly 4 million barrels per day from Canada, and accounts for more than half of America’s total yearly imports, while the U.S. accounts for about a third of Canada’s total crude oil exports. Per USAfacts.org, Mexico accounts for about 11% of America’s total petroleum exports and 11% of the United States’ total crude oil imports.
President Trump added another 10% levy to all Chinese exports into the United States, bringing the total levies to 20%. In response China added additional tariffs of up to 15% on some U.S. products, mainly targeting agriculture commodities. On Friday China accused Trump of economic “blackmail” and China’s Ministry of Commerce said China “firmly rejects” additional U.S. levies. Previously China placed a 10% levy on U.S. crude oil. According to EIA data, the U.S. sent China 195,000 barrels per day in November 2024. China’s policymakers will gather for the National People’s Congress tomorrow, with market participants anxious to hear if new stimulus measures will be announced. Caixans private survey reading showed China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose to 50.8 in February, up from January’s 50.1, and rose to its highest level in 11 months. This past Saturday China’s National Bureau of Statistics said China’s factory activity grew at the fastest pace since November. China’s Shanghai 300 Index declined -0.08% today.
OPEC officials confirmed that their April oil output increase would go on as scheduled, although they added that the return could be flexible, saying “Accordingly, this gradual increase may be paused or reversed subject to market conditions. This flexibility will allow the group to continue to support oil market stability.” Currently OPEC is holding back 2.2 million barrels per day, the current plan is to gradually add 138,000 b/d starting in April. In total the 2.2 million b/d cut is just a fraction of the total 5.85 million b/d cut the Cartel has been withholding since 2022, which in total amounts to about 5.7% of global supply.
The Trump administration said it was ending a license that allowed the multinational energy corporation Chevron to operate and export crude oil out of Venezuela since November 2022. Last year an average of 220,000 barrels per day were imported into the U.S. out of Venezuela, representing about 3.5% of all U.S. crude imports. The White House gave Chevron a deadline of April 3rd to wind down operations in Venezuela. Reuters estimates that Chevron exported roughly 300,000 b/d from Venezuela to the U.S. this past January.
Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Bloomberg that “Moscow believes that Washington and Tehran should settle all their differences through talks and is ready to contribute to this”. A U.S. official and another unnamed source told Reuters that the Trump Administration is considering plans to potentially reduce Russian sanctions as a means to stop the war in Ukraine and restore economic ties with Russia, with the Trump Administration asking the State and Treasury departments to configure a list of sanctions that could be eased. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said in a statement today that he wanted to “make things right” and that Kyiv was ready to come to the negotiating table. It is being rumored that at Donald Trump’s Joint Address to Congress tonight he will announce that the U.S.-Ukraine Rare Earth Mineral Deal has been renegotiated and agreed to.
This week’s American Petroleum Institute report estimates a crude oil draw of -1.45 million barrels (against a forecast of a draw of -0.64 mb). The API estimates a +1.6 million barrel build at the Cushing, Oklahoma Hub.
President Trump will hold a televised address to a Joint Session of Congress tonight at 8 p.m. ET. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool now anticipates three separate 0.25% interest rate cuts by the end of 2025, up from the previously expected single 0.25% rate cut. The S&P, Dow Jones finished lower, although rebounded from their daily lows, while the Nasdaq index finished higher and the U.S. Dollar Index closed lower by -1.11%.
Price Thoughts – We saw some buying come in after the April contract traded below that low $67 resistance area, rallying back into positive at one point, before settling near unchanged territory at the close. Needless to say it was a choppy day, which I expect to continue with the headline trading and debates about the global economy and energy demand going forward. To the downside there is support near/below $67, below that $65 has been a major support figure over the last year. To the upside there’s resistance near $70, above that $74.50 and the upper $79.50 region. Longer term I think we are still leaning more into the $65-$80 range rather than the $70-$85 range for 2025 for WTI. All in all, volatility and headline driven trade I don’t see ending anytime soon.
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Jim Rinaudo
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