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The west to east rain/storms which dropped moderate to locally heavy rains last night are still in business this morning. There are moderate rains over northwest Missouri and far southern Iowa which becomes light rain over central Illinois … and thunderstorms over central and southwest Ohio into western Pennsylvania.
WEDNESDAY MAX TEMPS – 70s over eastern MT, ND, north MN … 80s over OH, MI, IND, north ILL, south MN, IA, SD, NEB, east WY … low 90s over IA, KY, TN, ARK, LA, MS, AL, GA … mid 90s southern ILL, MO, most of TX, east OK … 95-105 over all of KS, OK.
RAINFALL LAST 24 HRS — ending 0700 CDT 13 JULY – There was a band of significant rain running more/ less in a west to east direction during the late afternoon and overnight hours which saw 0.50-2.0″/ 12-50mm from eastern COL into nw KS, east half of NEB, central/ south IA, north third of MO, north half of ILL, north IND, north OH. Coverage ranged from 40-50%. ** There was a band of 2-8″/ 50-200mm over se NEB (Lincoln) into north MO (Kirksville, Maryville, Trenton, Chillothe).
1-5 DAY = The cold front and its upper level energy which has been bringing in these overnight pesky and sometimes moderate to heavy clusters of rain and thunderstorms is finally beginning to break down over the Midwest. The official NWX rainfall forecast for the next five days shows no significant rain over any portion of the WCB as well as the central & upper Plains. HIGH pressure will move out of Manitoba and into the Midwest by Friday. This will be reinforced by another HIGH that drops out of Canada and moves into the Great Lakes this weekend. This high will still be over the ECB by Monday or Tuesday. Meanwhile the heat will rapidly rebuild over the Plains states. Many of the weather models show temperatures between 95 and 105°in South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and southern Missouri developing by Friday and continuing through the weekend. The Plains remain beastly hot into early next week but the heat does not reach Des Moines or St. Louis. For example next Monday on the GFS model Max temperatures at St. Louis is 82°, at Des Moines is 83° but Omaha is 94, Columbia Missouri 93 and Pierre South Dakota 107.
6-10 DAY = There have been some changes in the models overnight. The heat dome does build into the WCB but it only lasts for a few days and the heat dome never gets into the ECB on any of the model data. There will be a significant temperature contrast across the WCB for much of next week. All of the model data shows that by July 21 the heat dome will break down and slide back into the southwest U.S. and this in turn will allow a new cold front to press into the Midwest and reestablishes the mean trough position over the Midwest and East Coast regions.
Until that cold front comes through late on the 20th or the 21st the temperature contrasts over the WCB and the eastern Plains will be impressive. The arrival of this cold front late on the 20th to 21st will bring some areas significant rain. The GFS is a large area of 1-3″/ 25-75mm rains over central and southern Minnesota, Wisconsin and northern Iowa. The European model has similar rainfall amounts – 0.75-2.5″/ 20-60mm — but it covers all of the ECB and 60 to 70% of Iowa, Missouri and eastern Nebraska.
For example, next Tuesday on the GFS model Max temperatures at St. Louis is 88°, at Des Moines is 95°, Omaha is 98, Columbia Missouri 102, Grand Island Neb 105.
On 7/19 the GFS model Max temperatures at St. Louis is 93°, at Des Moines is 97°, Omaha is 104, Columbia Missouri 98, Grand Island NEB 107 and Pierre SD 85.
By 7/20 when the next strong cold front begins to press southward the GFS model Max temperatures at St. Louis is 98, at Des Moines is 77 °, Omaha is 86, Columbia Missouri 101 and Pierre South Dakota 92.
On 7/21 on the GFS model Max temperatures at St. Louis is 83°, at Des Moines is 87°, Omaha is 88, Columbia Missouri 92 and Pierre South Dakota 108, central NEB 105, western KS 105.
11-15 DAY = There is widespread model agreement that the last week of July is going to feature a deep trough over the eastern half of the country. This trough will be surprisingly deep for late July reaching down into the Tennessee Valley. This will ensure that all the Midwest as well as the eastern Plains will see more seasonal temperatures for late July — and east of the Mississippi River temperatures could actually be below normal. It also means that the rainfall pattern should be normal over the WCB and probably above normal again over the ECB regions. This remains however a dry pattern for the Plains states.