Thursday afternoon radar shows moderate rain developing over central Kansas western Nebraska eastern Wyoming with snow falling over eastern portions of Wisconsin … rain over far southeastern Wisconsin and scattered showers across Eastern Michigan Central Ohio Eastern Kentucky and Tennessee.
There are no changes in the forecast for the next 5 days regard to the upcoming rain. The only changes to note is that the operational or regular GFS model is no longer showing these small areas of 12″/ 300mm rains. However most meteorologist believed that the operational GFS model runs which have been showing these 12 inch rain amounts have been too extreme and no was taking it seriously Instead the operational GFS continues to show a very reasonable 4-8″/1200-200mm h band of significant rain with 75% coverage or better over eastern Oklahoma …most of Arkansas …all of Missouri except the northwest third …central southern and western Illinois …into southwestern Michigan …and far western portions of Indiana. In addition there remains an area of 2-4″ 50-100mm rains covering the rest of Indiana …the rest of Michigan ..and Ohio into the Delta region as well as Mississippi and 1-3″ / 25-75mm rains over much of the WCB into the central Plains.
The operational GFS and the GFS ensemble continue show a fairly dry but chilly pattern for the 6-10 DAY across most the Midwest. As you can see the WCB is pretty dry whereas the weak system coming through May 3-4 brings light to moderate rain to portions of the ECB. It should be noted however that the Canadian model at midday as well as the European model from early Thursday morning did not support this much rain over the ECB on May 3 -4.
The trend continues to turn weather in the 11 to 15 day once the cold pattern breaks down and the Pacific pattern returns. The operational GFS has the significant if not heavy rain event of 1-4″/ 25-100mm rains across the heart of the Midwest. The GFS ensemble is not nearly as wet but it still showing significant rains over significant portion of the plains the Midwest.
We believe this solution is likely to be correct and we think the trend is going to turn wetter in the 11 to 15 day as we get closer to the event.
SUMMARY: the 11-15 day wetter GFS model runs could be a big deal for Mid May.