THURSDAY AM RADAR
The mid Thursday morning radar shows scattered showers and thunderstorms over southwest Kansas and northern Oklahoma with 30 to 40% coverage. The storms increase significantly in coverage over far southeastern Kansas …southwestern and south central Missouri and into the southwest portions of Illinois. In this area the coverage ranges from 50 to 70%. The showers become more scattered over southeastern Illinois and the southern half of Indiana and western Ohio. There is also a cluster of storms over west central portions of North Dakota
WEDNESDAY MAX TEMPS
80s over all of the ECB, WCB into all of ND, SD, NEB, eastern KS, eastern WY/ COL …Low 90s over eastern MT, central MO, KY, TN …95-100 over GA, MS, AL, ARK, sw half of MO, all of TX, OK, western KS.
As forecasted heavy rains did show up over the last 18 hours across northeastern Kansas …much of central Missouri and central and southern Illinois. Rainfall amounts in around the Kansas City area into west central Missouri ranged from 3-8″/ 75-200mm and 2-4″/ 50-10mm rains were common across much of St. Louis and the southern half of Illinois, south of Springfield. Lighter rain amounts of 1-2″ / 25-50mm were common across Springfield, Peoria and much of central Illinois. Keep in mind that the rain is STILL falling over much of the southern half of Missouri and over far southwest Illinois.
SUMMARY
After the area of moderate rains move through Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky later today …things quiet down over most of the Plains and the Midwest for the weekend and into MOST of next week. As we have been saying since Mid July … that after the rain event for the WCB July 26-27 the overall pattern would turn significantly cooler and drier for the Plains and most of the Midwest. While this pattern might produce some moderate rain for the ECB over the next 2 weeks, this sort of pattern (as we saw back in JUNE) is a dry one for the Plains and WCB.
As we look at the new model data in more detail …we see that our speculation about the first half of August appears to be coming to fruition.
1-5 DAY – Large cool HIGH pressure comes in from Canada bringing sunny skies …dry conditions and low humidity. Meanwhile on the East Coast a MAJOR LOW is going to develop which will last a few days off the coast of Maryland and Virginia. This Low will bring much of Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey extremely heavy rain starting on Friday night and lasting into next Monday. This Low could cause severe coastal damage if the current weather models would keep the system parked along the Maryland Coast turn out to be correct.
6-10 DAY – For the Midwest the next rain event does not show up until well after day 5 so all areas remain dry over the Midwest and the Plains through August 3 and possibly longer. The operational or regular GFS model wants to develop some light to moderate rains over the WCB August 1-2 which moves into the ECB August 2-3. The GFS model taken shows 40-50% coverage of 0.10-0.50″/ 2-12mm with a few higher amounts.
However the GFS ensembles do not show anything like that nor does the Canadian and the European is completely dry over all the Midwest right through August 4. In fact, the next significant rain which shows up on the European and Canadian models does not occur or develop until late August 4 -5 . Even that event is just a weak cold front which brings light scattered rains to 40 to 50% of the ECB with amounts generally under 0.75″/20mm.
11-15 DAY – In the 11 to 15 day the European ensemble is significantly wetter when compared to what it was showing yesterday. The entire Deep South see significant rains between 0.75-1.75″/ 30-45mm with 75+% coverage. Lighter rains cover almost all the Midwest with rainfall amounts generally under 0.75″/ 20mm. The GFS model also shows areas of light to moderate rain developing over much of the Midwest in the 11 to 15 day.
For those interested in grains, Walsh Trading hosts a FREE Grain Outlook Webinar every Thursday at 3PM CST. This webinar is hosted by Sean Lusk, Director Walsh Commercial Hedging Services. Sean will host his next webinar on Thursday, July 27th. REGISTER NOW. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon signup. If you missed our last webinar you may VIEW A RECORDING.