WEDNESDAY MAX TEMPS LINK
Max temps featured 50s over eastern KS, ILL, MO, IND, OH, MI and over eastern WY, eastern COL, western KS and far western NEB. 60s were common over eastern MT, ND, SD, rest of NEB and KS, into all of OK, the TX Panhandle, IA, MN, WI, ARK, KY … 70s over TN, LA, MS, sw RX … and 80s over rest of TX, AL, GS, SC.
MIN TEMPS THURS AM – some 20s over eastern COL into far sw NEB … Mid 30s over ND, SD, eastern MT, eastern WY, eastern COL, western KS, rest of NEB, MN, IA, northern MO and WI … 40s over central TX, rest of OK, rest of KS, rest of MO, ILL, IND, OH.
RAINFALL LAST 24 HRS ENDING 0700 CDT – This image shows the rainfall over the last 24 hours but of course much of the rain over eastern MO, ILL and IND is still falling. But as of 8:00 AM CDT we can see that large areas of 2″/50mm rains are quite common over east central MO/ central ILL and west central IND. The 2nd image shows TOTAL RAINFALL over the last 10 days and rainfall amounts have been well staggering. Over large portions of northeast third of OK/ far southeast 25% of KS / 80% of central and southern MO / northern ARK / southern third of ILL this map shows rainfall amounts anywhere from 6-15″/ 150 -425mm over the past 10 days.
1-5 DAY = To show you the rainfall mapped for next 5 days would be somewhat deceptive because most of the rain over the next 5 days will fall between now and the next 60 hours. Thus we are presenting rainfall from the GFS / European models for the next 60 hours. There are no changes. The time frame from 66 hours to 120 hours shows no significant rain over any portion of the Plains and the Midwest.
Of course, the issue will remain the very cool temperatures which will continue over the central and upper Plains as well as all of the Midwest for the next few days. By Saturday temps will be back into Mid and Upper 70s over all of the Plains and into MO, ARK, LA with some 80s over the Plains by Monday. BUT east of the Miss river temps stay well below normal thru D5.
6-10 DAY = There are big changes in some other models for the 6-10 day rainfall. The Wednesday afternoon European model which had gone very wet for the entire Midwest in the 6-10 D has now done a complete flip flop and shows much drier conditions for this interval over all the Midwest. However the operational or regular GFS model still remains wet over most of the Midwest in the 6-10D as does the GFS ensemble. In the new edition of WEATHER INSIDER I talk about what is going on with these models and why they are having such a difficult time figuring out the 6 to 10 day forecast.
In our view, the potential exists for a fairly wet 6-10 D but there is still a bit of uncertainty here. Clearly the best areas likely to see significant rains in the 6-10D are the central Plains (Nebraska, Kansas, as well as western Oklahoma and Texas panhandle). However the rainfall forecast for the WCB and ECB regions are very uncertain at this time. The potential exists there for significant rain but it is also a high risk/ bust forecast.
11-15 DAY = All the models are turning somewhat drier and warmer in the 11 to 15 day and again we explain why this happens in the new edition of WEATHER INSIDERS. It’s quite probable that a dry interval will not last as it looks like the pattern is reloading with more energy coming in from the Pacific Ocean that could bring about another surge of above normal rainfall for portions of the Plains and the Midwest in the 16 to 20 day. But for now … the 11 to 15 day pattern definitely looks drier and somewhat warmer than it has been.
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