Soybeans–
Soybeans started the day sharply lower due to Trump extending China’s tariff deadline yesterday. After the WASDE report came out at 11am, soybeans moved sharply higher finishing the day up 21 cents in the September contract. The yield was adjusted to 53.6 bpa versus 52.5 bpa in July. Production was decreased from 4.335 bb in July to 4.292 bb. New crop ending stocks for August were 290 mb, compared to 290 mb in July. Old crop ending stocks were adjusted to 330 mb, compared to 350 mb last month. World ending stocks were decreased slightly from 126.07 mt in July to 124.90 mt.
September Soybeans (ZSU25) settled at 1012 (+21), high of 1014, low of 973. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1032 (+21), high of 1035, low of 994. Cash price is at 986 (+24)
September Bean Meal (ZMU25) settled at 281.4 (+0.6) high of 287.5, low of 276
September Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 53.07 (+0.08) high of 53.41, low of 51.88
The September Meal to Oil ratio (51.39% Meal – 48.61% Oil)
ZSU25 Moving Averages – (982) 5-day, (991) 20-day, (1010) 50-day, (1016) 100-day, (1020) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1002) 5-day, (1009) 20-day, (1022) 50-day, (1024) 100-day, (1025) 200-day
ZMU25 Moving Averages – (277.5) 5-day, (273.9) 20-day, (282.3) 50-day, (292.1) 100-day, (302.8) 200-day
ZLU25 Moving Averages – (53.27) 5-day, (55.03) 20-day, (53.08) 50-day, (50.45) 100-day, (47.25) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 5 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -29,619 contracts to their bringing their net short to -65,930 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 19,529 contracts bringing their net short position to -68,230 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -66,976 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 5 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -234 contracts, moving to a net short position of -133,592 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -6,902 contracts bringing their net short position to -29,192. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of -82,931 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 5 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net long 54,939 contracts after selling -11,661 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 78,565 contracts.
CORN –
September Corn (ZCU25) settled at 371 (-13), high of 384, low of 368. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 394 (-13). Cash price is 401 (+2)
It was bearish report from the USDA for corn. The yield estimate was raised from 181 bpa in July to 188.8 bpa. The average yield estimate was 184.4 bpa. Production was raised to 16.742 bb compared to 15.705 bb last month. New crop ending stocks are now 2.117 bb, up from 1.60 in July. Looking at the old crop figures, ending stocks were decreased slightly to 1.305 bb, compared to 1.340 in July. World ending stocks for corn came in at 282.54 bb versus 272.08 bb last month. December corn could be on its way to 380 or even 350.
ZCU25 Moving Averages – (380) 5-day, (392) 20-day, (406) 50-day, (422) 100-day, (435) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (403) 5-day, (412) 20-day, (424) 50-day, (436) 100-day, (443) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 5 showed that corn Managed Money bought 7,435 contracts bringing their net position to -173,750 contracts. Producer/Merchants sold -2,417 contracts bringing their net position to -27,359. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -198,038 contracts.
WHEAT –
September Chicago Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 505 (-10), with a high of 515, low of 503. December Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 526 (-9). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 486 (+1). September KC Wheat (KEU25) settled at 510 (-8).
All wheat production for 2025/26 was estimated at 1.927 bb, compared to 1.929 bb last month. The average estimate for all wheat production was 1.920 bb. Ending stocks for wheat were estimated at 869 mb versus 890 mb in July. Despite the decrease in ending stocks, wheat traded 10 cents lower in the front-month contract, showing the market didn’t like the report. Friday’s meeting between Russia and President Trump is the next major catalyst for the wheat market. Any concessions made by Russia will likely send wheat prices lower. The Russian wheat harvest is picking up, and export prices are now $3 higher this week at $239. September wheat could be a good market to short, looking for a move below 500.
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (512) 5-day, (527) 20-day, (543) 50-day, (551) 100-day, (572) 200-day
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (533) 5-day, (548) 20-day, (564) 50-day, (572) 100-day, (592) 200-day The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending August 5 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -80,769 contracts, having increased their short position by -15,445 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 8,644 contracts to bring their net long position to 16,310 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net short -84,046 contracts
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