April 4, 2025
The livestock markets continue to respond to macro drivers, technical levels, and seasonal shifts as we move into April. With strong performance seen across certain contracts and weakness in others, the cattle and hog complex appears mixed. Below is a breakdown of current market positioning in live cattle (LEM25), feeder cattle (GFK25), and lean hogs (HEM25), integrating both recent chart activity and broader fundamental context.
Live Cattle (LEM25)
LEM25 remains in a continuation of the upward trend, though a brief pullback was observed on April 3 after reaching a high of 207.72 on April 2. This pause is largely attributed to profit-taking and market sentiment shifts driven by tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty.
The long position initiated on March 5 at 190.50 hit its first profit target at 200.00 on March 13. As of today, the contract must hold above the 201.50 level to maintain bullish momentum. The next technical profit target is set at 210.00.
In my opinion, the overall trend remains constructive as long as 201.50 support holds, but market participants should be cautious of headline-driven pullbacks.
Source: CME Group, Barchart
Feeder Cattle (GFK25)
The feeder cattle market has reached key technical levels recently. Our earlier target of 280.00 was met on March 12, followed by a rise to 290.00 on March 21. Since then, GFK25 has moved into a whipsaw pattern, reflecting indecision and range-bound trading.
To maintain its uptrend, the contract must hold support at 283.00. A break below could signal bearish sentiment, triggering a potential short setup with support targets at 277.10, 265.00, and 261.50. Conversely, if 283.00 holds, the next upside target is 295.00.
In my view, this market is in a technical limbo, and traders should remain agile until a clear breakout or breakdown confirms directional intent.
Source: CME Group, AgWeb, TradingView
Lean Hogs (HEM25)
Lean hogs have been under pressure since peaking on February 19. A short-term rebound pushed prices to a high of 99.70 on March 17, but since then, the market has been trending downward with increased daily volatility in the range of 4–5 cent spikes.
HEM25 continues to show weakness, with the next profit target set at 92.00. In my opinion, volatility remains a central theme, likely tied to export demand uncertainty, production numbers, and general risk-off trading behavior. This market remains a tactical play, favoring short positions until stronger support is found.
Source: USDA Hogs & Pigs Report, CME, DTN Livestock Insider
Final Thoughts
As always, this is just my opinion and should not be considered as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s essential to stay informed and manage risk accordingly.
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John S. Simpson Jr.
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading
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Great Thought of the Day:
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