Live Cattle (LEM25)
Long position established at $190.50 on March 5 reached its first target at $200.00 by March 13, topping out at $207.72 on April 2. The market has since pulled back sharply. In my opinion, $193.00 is a key technical level; the market must stay and close above this threshold for a bullish continuation. A confirmed hold above this level could justify a new long entry at $193.00, targeting renewed upside momentum.
Feeder Cattle (GFK25)
Previous upside targets of $280.00 and $290.00 were met on March 12 and March 21, respectively. Since then, the market broke below support and initiated a bearish reversal. A short was triggered at $283.00 on April 3, and price must remain below $279.70 to sustain the downtrend. Downside targets are projected at $265.00 and $261.50 if momentum continues.
Lean Hogs (HEM25)
After reaching a high of $99.70 on March 17, the market fell into a volatile downtrend. A long position was re-entered at $90.55 on April 9, following a brief rebound. Key resistance lies at $92.15; if broken and held, this would signal a bullish shift with confirmation at $94.70. In my opinion, this would open the door to the next price targets of $97.00 and $99.00.
COT Report Highlights
As of the latest COT data:
- Live Cattle: Managed money trimmed some length, but still holds a bullish stance overall, suggesting caution on further downside unless technicals break lower.
- Feeder Cattle: Commercials increased short positions, supporting the recent downtrend.
- Lean Hogs: Net short positions have begun to unwind slightly, hinting at possible fund interest returning on price dips.
Technical View:
- Indicators such as RSI and MACD show divergence in cattle, implying potential short-term turning points.
- Hogs are exhibiting breakout potential on any close above 92.15.
Great Thought of the Day:
“The market rewards discipline, not emotion. Patience in the trade is power in the outcome.”
Verse of Reflection:
“Plans fail for lack of counsel, but with many advisers they succeed.” — Proverbs 15:22
Final Thoughts
As always, this is just my opinion and should not be considered as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s essential to stay informed and manage risk accordingly.
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John S. Simpson Jr.
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading
jsimpson@walshtrading.com
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“Until we meet again, may your risk be measured, your gains be steady, and your vision be clear.”
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