Date: March 26, 2025
Author: John S. Simpson Jr., Senior Market Strategist, Walsh Trading
Grain markets remain in consolidation and technical limbo ahead of the highly anticipated USDA Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings Report set to release on March 31, 2025. With speculative positioning still in flux and key support levels being tested, we are entering a pivotal moment in the grain complex. The March 31 report historically carries major implications for acreage expectations and inventory estimates, often setting the tone for spring price action.
Let’s dive into the current structure and key technicals for Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, Soybean Meal, and Soybean Oil.
Corn (ZCN25)
Corn continues to coil within a triangular formation, suggesting a significant breakout could be brewing.
- Support: $465 remains a critical level.
- Entry zone: Between $457 and $460.
- Confirmation: Market must break above 470–475 to confirm upside continuation.
- Targets: $485, $500, and $520 on strength.
COT Report: Funds remain moderately short, but covering activity has been noted. A bullish acreage surprise could trigger aggressive short-covering.
Wheat (ZWN25)
Wheat remains in a downtrend with technical pressure mounting.
- Support: $555 must hold to prevent further declines.
- Breakdown levels: $540 and $520 if $555 fails.
- Upside reversal: Needs close above 566 to confirm.
- Profit targets: $585 and $595 on recovery.
Outlook: Wheat remains vulnerable on global supply competition and sluggish demand. However, funds are heavily short, and any bullish surprise in planting or lower stock levels could spark a sharp rally.
Soybeans (ZSN25)
Beans are consolidating with support holding at $1007, forming a continued triangular pattern.
- Buy signal: Above $1008 with confirmation required above $1019.
- Profit targets: $1031, $1042, and $1077.
Seasonal Note: As we move into April, beans often experience planting-season volatility. Acreage estimates below expectations could provide the spark.
Soybean Meal (ZMN25)
Soybean meal has broken out of its previous range between 305–311 to the downside.
- Breakdown confirmed: Below $305, now in downtrend.
- Next support targets: $300, $296, and $290.
Market Insight: Meal has lacked bullish momentum despite Argentine dryness headlines. Watch for spillover from soybeans post-report.
Soybean Oil (ZLN25)
After finding strong support at 41.50, soybean oil has reversed and is now trending higher.
- Buy zone: $42.30 (noted on 3/17).
- Upside confirmation: Above $43.40.
- Next profit targets: $44.34, $45.50, and $48.00.
Macro Factor: Crude oil strength and biofuel demand continue to be key bullish drivers. If crude holds gains, bean oil may lead the soy complex higher.
March 31 USDA Report – Historical Perspective & Acreage Expectations
The March 31 USDA Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings Report is one of the most market-moving events of the spring. It gives the first official look at farmer intentions for planted acres across the major crops—setting the tone for price expectations heading into growing season.
Historical Acreage Comparison (Million Acres):
| Crop | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Early 2025 Estimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 88.6 | 94.6 | 91.0 | 89.0 – 91.5 |
| Soybeans | 87.5 | 83.5 | 86.5 | 86.0 – 87.5 |
| All Wheat | 47.1 | 49.6 | 47.5 | 46.0 – 47.0 |
| Cotton | 13.8 | 11.2 | 10.9 | 10.5 – 11.0 |
Corn Outlook:
Corn acreage surged in 2023 due to high fertilizer availability and strong new-crop pricing. In 2024, we saw a slight retracement. Early surveys for 2025 suggest flat to slightly lower corn acres, due in part to margin compression and increasing soybean competitiveness. A number below 90 million could trigger a bullish reaction, especially with current global corn supply tightening.
Soybean Outlook:
Soybeans may gain a modest share of acres, especially in fringe areas of the Corn Belt. Fertilizer costs remain elevated and soybean margins are perceived as more favorable in certain regions. A number north of 87 million would be considered neutral-to-bearish, while anything under 86 million may spark concern over tight supply later this year.
Wheat Outlook:
Winter wheat acres were already seeded last fall, and early spring wheat planting decisions hinge on Dakota moisture and spring conditions. Estimates suggest a slight dip in total wheat acres from last year. A surprise in spring wheat acres would be key for Minneapolis futures direction.
What This Means for Markets:
- Corn: If acres fall under expectations and stocks come in tight, ZCN25 could break out above $475 resistance and head toward $500+.
- Soybeans: A tight stocks number paired with sub-86M acres could send ZSN25 toward $1042+ and beyond.
- Wheat: Funds are heavily short—any bullish surprise (lower acreage or tighter stocks) may trigger a sharp rally and cover.
COT Report Summary
As of last week:
- Funds remain net short in corn and wheat, leaving room for a reversal.
- Soybean positions have flattened, suggesting indecision.
- Meal and oil have shown mixed positioning, with oil seeing light long interest.
Final Thoughts
As always, this is just my opinion and should not be considered as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s essential to stay informed and manage risk accordingly.
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John S. Simpson Jr.
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading
[email protected]
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