Date: March 28, 2025
As we approach the USDA’s key March 31st Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings Report, markets are on edge, and price action across corn, soybeans, and wheat is reflecting the weight of expectation. This special edition of The Sinclair Report dives into market setups, technicals, and what the average trade guesses may be signaling.
Corn (ZCN25)
Corn markets have broken down below key technical levels following a triangular formation around the 50% Fibonacci retracement near 471 (from the August 2024 low @421-6 to the February 2025 high @521-4). The market slipped below support at 465 on March 27th, triggering downside targets. Watch key levels at 450 and 437 as potential long entries if we see reversal and strength. A move back above 471 would confirm a bullish structure, targeting 485, 500, and 520.
USDA Pre-Report Estimates:
- Planted Area: Average trade guess is 94.4–94.5 million acres, up slightly from the USDA Outlook Forum projection of 94 million. However, several private estimates are surfacing with expectations closer to 95–96 million acres.
- Stocks (as of March 1): 8.154 billion bushels, slightly below last year’s 8.352 billion.
In my opinion, while the average guess appears modestly supportive, the higher-end acreage ideas could pose a bearish surprise if realized. Staying patient and watching for a bullish wildcard is the name of the game.
Soybeans (ZSN25)
Soybeans are holding key support at 1007, continuing to form a triangular consolidation pattern. A rebound to 1008 triggered a buy signal. Staying above 1019 remains critical. The market reached the first profit target at 1031 on March 27th, with upside targets now set at 1042, 1058, and 1077.
USDA Pre-Report Estimates:
- Planted Area: 83.8 million acres, slightly below the USDA’s Outlook Forum estimate of 84.0 million.
- Stocks (as of March 1): 1.905 billion bushels, up from 1.845 billion last year.
In my view, the slightly higher stocks and near-flat acreage projection may limit upside momentum unless we see a bullish surprise. The trade is staying patient and hoping for a wildcard headline—sooner rather than later.
Chicago Wheat (ZWN25)
USDA Pre-Report Estimates:
- All Wheat Planted Area: Average trade guess is 46.475 million acres vs. 47.0 million from the Outlook Forum and 46.079 million planted last year.
This modest acreage increase is not likely to shift sentiment unless paired with surprising stock adjustments. In my opinion, wheat remains technically heavy until proven otherwise.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Overview
As of the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report, we continue to see funds holding notable short positions across grains:
- Corn: Managed money remains net short, though we’ve seen some covering into key support zones. Any surprise from USDA could quickly shift positioning.
- Soybeans: Speculative traders have trimmed some shorts but remain lightly positioned. A bullish acreage or stocks surprise could ignite buying.
- Wheat: Funds continue to carry a historically large short position. Any deviation from expected acreage or lower-than-forecast stocks could lead to a sharp reaction.
In my opinion, the COT positioning reflects the broader tone of trader skepticism—and leaves room for a strong move should USDA data deliver a surprise.
Great Thought of the Day
“Markets tend to overprice fear and underprice patience—until the report hits. Then, reality takes over.”
Final Thoughts
As always, this is just my opinion and should not be considered as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s essential to stay informed and manage risk accordingly.
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John S. Simpson Jr.
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading
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Until we meet again, may your risk be measured, your gains be steady, and your vision be clear.
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