**Grain Markets Overview **
Wheat (ZWN25): The market broke through a critical support level set on August 27, 2024, at 560. This breakdown led to a short entry at 560 on April 21, with downside targets now seen at 545, 533, and 520. Continued pressure is likely unless significant support emerges.
Soybeans (ZSN25): The soybean market continues its upward trend. Buying interest remains between 1036 and 1040, contingent on upward confirmation. Profit targets remain at 1059 and 1077-78, with strong support at 1019. This market remains structurally bullish.
Corn (ZCN25): Corn is also trending higher. Long entries are favorable at 481 with a key support at 476. A hold above this level confirms the potential continuation toward targets at 494 and 500.
Soybean Meal (ZMN25): Short position initiated at 302 on April 21, targeting 298.7, 296, and potentially 290. Momentum favors further downside in the short term.
Soybean Oil (ZLN25): A pullback entry was taken at 46.96 on April 15, with major support at 45.27 (50% Fibonacci retracement). Target zone stands at 49.50 to 50.00. The setup remains constructive for higher prices.
COT Report Summary (as of latest data):
Commercial hedgers remain net short across corn and soybean futures, signaling a cautious stance by producers. Managed money continues to show increasing long interest in beans and hogs, aligning with bullish price action. Wheat positions reflect continued speculative selling pressure.
Planting Progress and Weather Outlook
Corn planting is underway in key Midwest states, with favorable soil moisture but colder-than-normal temps slowing early emergence. Soybean acreage prep is in full swing, though rain delays in Illinois and Indiana may shift short-term timelines. Wheat in the Southern Plains is developing under decent conditions, but dryness in parts of Kansas could trim yield potential.
Political Developments:
President Trump has notably shifted his tone in recent speeches, signaling openness to a new bipartisan economic framework proposed by the White House. This could influence trade policy discussions and impact ag market sentiment in the coming weeks.
Great Thought of the Day:
“In times of uncertainty, the clearest vision belongs to those who prepare while others panic.”
Final Thoughts
As always, this is just my opinion and should not be considered as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s essential to stay informed and manage risk accordingly.
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John S. Simpson Jr.
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading
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