Soybeans–
After Friday’s major sell-off after President Trump’s social media post, soybeans traded slightly higher today. In the overnight session, soybeans closed up 1 1/4 cents. Trump tried to calm the markets with more social media posts over the weekend, which was successful in the short-term. It remains to be seen how this China situation develops over the long-term, however it seems as though China won’t be buying US beans anytime soon. China’s soybean imports are up 5.3% on the year. Brazil planting is moving along smoothly, with planting at 12.48% complete. Last year at this time, Brazil’s soybeans were 5.28% planted. Harvested is estimated at 65-70% complete. Rains may delay harvest pace this week in the western belt. Next week chances of rain favor the eastern belt.
November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1007 (+1), high of 1013, low of 1003. January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1025 (+2), high of 1030, low of 1020. Cash price is at 965 (-16)
December Bean Meal (ZMZ25) settled at 274.1 (-0.9) high of 275.7, low of 273.3
December Bean Oil (ZLZ25) settled at 50.60 (+0.63) high of 50.68, low of 49.85
The September Meal to Oil ratio (52.40% Meal – 47.60% Oil)
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1017) 5-day, (1019) 20-day, (1026) 50-day, (1027) 100-day, (1029) 200-day
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1034) 5-day, (1037) 20-day, (1045) 50-day, (1044) 100-day, (1042) 200-day
ZMZ25 Moving Averages – (276.2) 5-day, (278.0) 20-day, (284.5) 50-day, (289.2) 100-day, (301.8) 200-day
ZLZ25 Moving Averages – (50.81) 5-day, (50.56) 20-day, (51.83) 50-day, (52.21) 100-day, (48.90) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -31.589 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -29,302 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,234 contracts bringing their net short position to -92,440 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -35,287 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,497 contracts, bringing their net short position of -103,269 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 23,194 contracts bringing their net short position to -43,134. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -67,159 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net short -889 contracts after selling -22,286 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 11,858 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 410 (-2), high of 415, low of 410. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 427 (-1). Cash price is 393 (-5)
Corn traded slightly lower to start the week, after trading unchanged in the overnight session. Open interest rose by 22,000 contracts on Friday’s sell-off, suggesting new short positions being initiated. The corn market is entering an interesting spot around 400-410. These levels have not traded since late August. Support above 400 has been strong, but with new shorts in the market corn could test the low at 392.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (416) 5-day, (421) 20-day, (415) 50-day, (422) 100-day, (438) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (432) 5-day, (437) 20-day, (432) 50-day, (439) 100-day, (453) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that corn Managed Money sold -14,624 contracts bringing their net position to -94,675 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 10,692 contracts bringing their net position to -97,598. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -85,437 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 496 (-1), with a high of 501, low of 494. March 26’ Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 513 (-2). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 467 (-2). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 481 (-1).
Wheat flipped green to red, closing lower today. In the overnight session, wheat traded 3 1/2 cents lower. On Friday’s sell-off wheat open interest increased by 15,000 contracts. Russian export estimates have been revised higher to 5.0 mt for October, compared to 4.6 mt in September. Export pace from July-September is still down 30% from a year ago. Sentiment for wheat is still bearish, especially with the close below 500. Wheat has been trying to find a bottom, but it still could take some time yet.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (503) 5-day, (515) 20-day, (522) 50-day, (546) 100-day, (573) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (520) 5-day, (533) 20-day, (540) 50-day, (564) 100-day, (591) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -97,935 contracts, having increased their short position by -12,110 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,547 contracts to bring their net long position to 20,165 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net long 62,788 contracts.
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