Soybeans–
Soybeans closed lower, after trading 2 cents lower in the overnight session. The deadline for an increase on Chinese goods is set at November 9. Treasury Secretary Bessent said there could be a breakthrough in the next round of trade talks. With the government shutdown, some market data will be delayed. There will be no COT report this afternoon. In addition, the October WASDE report, originally scheduled for October 9, will be delayed. Brazil is still dry with rain chances continuing to be pushed further out in weather forecasts. IF this trend continues it could start to have an effect on price. Weather in the Midwest is still favorable for harvest. Rain is expected next week in the Southwest, while the eastern Corn Belt is expected to stay dry.
November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1018 (-5), high of 1028, low of 1016. January Soybeans (ZSF26) settled at 1037 (-4), high of 1046, low of 1035. Cash price is at 980 (+10)
October Bean Meal (ZMV25) settled at 278.6 (-0.7) high of 282.0, low of 278.1
October Bean Oil (ZLV25) settled at 50.05 (-0.39) high of 50.58, low of 49.95
The September Meal to Oil ratio (52.68% Meal – 47.32% Oil)
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1013) 5-day, (1024) 20-day, (1024) 50-day, (1029) 100-day, (1028) 200-day
ZSF26 Moving Averages – (1032) 5-day, (1043) 20-day, (1043) 50-day, (1045) 100-day, (1041) 200-day
ZMV25 Moving Averages – (276.0) 5-day, (281.2) 20-day, (284.7) 50-day, (290.9) 100-day, (302.8) 200-day
ZLV25 Moving Averages – (50.02) 5-day, (50.78) 20-day, (52.41) 50-day, (52.19) 100-day, (48.60) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed soybean Managed Money traders sold -31.589 contracts bringing their bringing their net short position to -29,302 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 27,234 contracts bringing their net short position to -92,440 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net position was -35,287 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed meal Managed Money traders sold -20,497 contracts, bringing their net short position of -103,269 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 23,194 contracts bringing their net short position to -43,134. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a long position of -67,159 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed bean oil Managed Money traders were net short -889 contracts after selling -22,286 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net long position was 11,858 contracts.
CORN –
December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 419 (-2), high of 423, low of 418. March ’26 Corn (ZCH26) settled at 435 (-2). Cash price is 411 (+5)
Corn was unable to close higher on Friday, after trading a 1/4 cent higher in the overnight session. Looking at the Southern Rust map, it seems that crop disease could become a point of discussion going forward. The Pro Farmer crop tour mentioned a surprising amount of disease on its Midwest tour and it appears it’s still an issue. Drought rose 2 points to 28% under drought, compared to 27% last year. Harvest weather is still favorable in the Midwest. On yesterday’s rally open interest rose nearly 11k contracts, indicating new long positions being initiated. Meanwhile, Argentina’s corn planting is estimated at 20% complete.
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (418) 5-day, (422) 20-day, (414) 50-day, (424) 100-day, (439) 200-day
ZCH26 Moving Averages – (435) 5-day, (439) 20-day, (432) 50-day, (440) 100-day, (453) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that corn Managed Money sold -14,624 contracts bringing their net position to -94,675 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 10,692 contracts bringing their net position to -97,598. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net short position was -85,437 contracts.
WHEAT –
December Chicago Wheat (ZWZ25) settled at 515 (+0.50), with a high of 518, low of 512. March 26’ Wheat (ZWH26) settled at 532 (unchanged). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 476 (+13). December KC Wheat (KEZ25) settled at 497 (-2).
Wheat had a quiet day, after trading 1 1/4 cent higher in the overnight session. Fundamentals in the wheat market are for the most part unchanged, with almost everything looking bearish. Major wheat growing countries will be hitting the export market over the next several months as stock estimates continue to increase. Argentina yields are near record highs, while Russian exports hit a month 1-month high. COT and export data will be delayed. The potential for short covering and the ongoing war in Ukraine remain the top bullish factors for wheat at this point.
ZWZ25 Moving Averages – (513) 5-day, (520) 20-day, (527) 50-day, (549) 100-day, (575) 200-day
ZWH26 Moving Averages – (531) 5-day, (538) 20-day, (545) 50-day, (568) 100-day, (593) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 23 showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short -97,935 contracts, having increased their short position by -12,110 contracts. Producer/Merchants bought 6,547 contracts to bring their net long position to 20,165 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were net long 62,788 contracts.
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